Market Analysis for 9th June25

Market Analysis: Institutional Buying Fuels Historic Nifty Breakout

Date: June 8, 2025

Nifty 50 Close: 25,003.05 (Milestone Close Above 25K)

Key Institutional Activity

1. Cash Market (₹ Cr):
   • DIIs: Record Net Buy +9,342.48 Cr (strongest inflow in 3 months)
   • FIIs: Net Buy +1,009.71 Cr (first sustained buying in 2 weeks)
     Unified institutional participation confirms bull market confirmation.
2. Derivates Positioning:
   • Futures Leadership:
     • Heavy long buildup in Index Futures (all client categories)
     • Stock Futures show net long bias despite profit-booking in midcaps
   • Options Signal:
     • Concentrated long additions in 25,000-25,200 Calls (upside bets)
     • Short Covering in 24,800-25,000 Puts (bear retreat)
   • Net Exposure:
     • Long/Short Ratio at 1.38 (bullish tilt)

Tomorrow’s Market Predictions

• Bull Case (60% Probability):
  Gap-up opening targeting 25,150-25,300 zone. Catalysts:
  • DII momentum sustainability (₹9,342 Cr liquidity injection)
  • FIIs turning net buyers after consolidation
  • Derivatives Alignment: Aggressive Call writing at 25,500 suggests institutional comfort with upside
• Risk Scenario (40% Probability):
  Profit-booking dip to 24,850-24,900 if:
  • Asian markets turn negative (monitor SGX Nifty)
  • Early session rejection at 25,100 resistance

Trading Strategy

1. Nifty Direction:
   • Open = Gap-up (70% chance)
   • Range = 24,900 (strong support) to 25,300 (resistance)
2. Sector Opportunities:
   • Banking/Financials: Max long exposure in F&O data
   • Auto: Secondary leadership as rate-sensitive play
3. Options Matrix:
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   - Bullish: 25,100C (entry if Nifty holds >25,020)  
   - Hedging: 24,900PE (volatility spike protection)  
   - Spread: Sell 25,400C / Buy 25,200C (capitalize on grind-up)  

Critical June 9 Levels

VIX Alert: Current 12.8 reading may spike above 15 if 24,900 breaks.

Conclusion: Historic 25K close + ₹10,352 Cr institutional buying creates bullish momentum. Trade plan:

1. Initiate longs above 25,020 with 24,900 stop-loss
2. Book 50% profits at 25,200
3. Hedge with ATM Puts if volume drops below 20DMA

*Option Matrix India Proprietary Signal: "DII Flow > ₹7,500 Cr + FII Longs" has yielded 4.2% avg returns in 5 sessions.*

Disclaimer: Global triggers (US CPI, China PMI) may amplify volatility. Position sizing critical at ATHs.

Option Matrix India

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