Derivative Market Outlook & Stock Market Analysis for July 11
Published by Option Matrix India
On July 10, the Indian stock market witnessed a volatile session that ultimately ended on a bearish note. The Nifty 50 opened at 25,511.65 and moved within a narrow range of 25,340.45 to 25,524.05 before closing lower at 25,355.25, slipping nearly 121 points from the previous close. Despite a strong start, selling pressure intensified in the second half, particularly in banking and large-cap stocks. The Bank Nifty followed a similar path, closing at 56,956—down from the previous 57,213.55. Notably, FIIs turned net buyers with ₹585.96 Cr inflow, while DIIs bought ₹20 Cr, offering mild support. However, option chain data reflected heavy call writing at higher levels, capping upside potential. Global cues were mixed; crude traded at $68.15 and Dow futures stayed flat to bearish. Overall, the session suggested cautious sentiment despite positive FII participation, keeping the short-term trend range-bound to negative.
Today’s Market Summary (July 10)
On July 10, the Indian stock market closed on a bearish note, despite an optimistic start. Here's a snapshot:
-
Nifty 50:
- Open: 25,511.65
- High: 25,524.05
- Low: 25,340.45
- Close: 25,355.25
- Previous Close: 25,476.10
- Change: -120.85 pts
-
Bank Nifty:
- Open: 57,339.75
- High: 57,363.70
- Low: 56,886.60
- Close: 56,956.00
- Previous Close: 57,213.55
Despite positive FII inflows, the bearish close suggests profit booking and technical resistance near upper zones. This gives us an important context for our derivative market-driven stock market prediction for July 11.
Global & Domestic Cues
- Crude Oil: $68.15 – stable and neutral
- Rupee: 85.6 – slightly weak, but not alarming
- European Markets: Mixed to bullish
- Dow Futures: Flat to bearish
- Gift Nifty: Trading around 25,526, indicating a possible gap-up or flat open
FII & DII Cash Activity – Key to Market Sentiment
- FII Net Buy: ₹585.96 Cr
- DII Net Buy: ₹20 Cr
Generally, the Indian stock market remains bullish when FIIs are net buyers. FIIs returning to the buying side after days of selling is an encouraging development for bulls.
Market Participant Data (Decoded)
The derivative market data for July 10 shows the following insights:
FIIs:
- Increased Index Futures Longs moderately
- Decreased Short Index Calls
- Added Put Longs moderately – a cautious hedge
- Overall Position: Mildly bullish
DIIs:
- Little change in derivative positions
- Net buyers in cash, suggesting accumulation on dips
Proprietary Traders (Pro):
- Increased Short Calls on both Nifty and Bank Nifty
- Increased Stock Future Shorts
- Their strategy seems to be range-bound bearish
Retail:
- Increased CE buying (overly bullish)
- Added aggressive Put shorts — sign of complacency
Conclusion: Pros and FIIs are cautious. Retail is overleveraged long. Expect volatile sideways to bearish action unless key resistances are taken out.
Nifty Option Chain Analysis (Nearest Expiry)
| Strike Price | CE OI | CE Change | PE OI | PE Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25,500 | High | ↑ | – | – | Strong Call Resistance |
| 25,300 | – | – | High | ↑ | Strong Put Support |
| PCR | – | – | – | – | PCR ~0.85 (Bearish Bias) |
- Max CE OI at 25,500 and 25,600 indicates a ceiling.
- PE Writers active at 25,200 and 25,300 for support.
- IV slightly rising → Expect volatility.
Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis
| Strike | CE OI | PE OI | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57,000 | High | Moderate | Resistance Zone |
| 56,500 | Moderate | High | Support Zone |
- CE writers dominating at 57,000–57,500
- PCR is around 0.75, reinforcing a bearish undertone
Nifty & Bank Nifty Cumulative Data Analysis
Nifty:
- Total CE OI: 46.29 lakh
- Total PE OI: 35.56 lakh
- Trend: Moderate Call dominance (cautious to bearish sentiment)
Bank Nifty:
- CE OI: 4.92 lakh
- PE OI: 4.53 lakh
- Trend: Balanced – signaling indecisiveness
Technical Price Action Review
- Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with lower high and lower low.
- Support holds near 25,330; breach of this can push toward 25,220 and 25,124.
- Bank Nifty shows distribution at higher levels; failure to cross 57,000 may lead to 56,600 or lower.
Market Prediction for July 11 – Strategy & Outlook
Using all decoded derivative market data, we now give a structured outlook.
🚫 No Trading Zone: 25,330 – 25,426 (Avoid noise inside this range)
Bullish Scenario:
If a 15m candle closes above 25,430:
- Target 1: 25,487
- Target 2: 25,550
- Target 3: 25,666
Bearish Breakdown:
If 15m closes below 25,330:
- Target 1: 25,220
- Target 2: 25,124
- Target 3: 25,040
⚠ If breaks key levels but closes within range → fade move
🔐 Golden Rule:
- No bullish trade on a bearish candle
- No bearish trade on a bullish candle
Final Market Outlook – July 11
| Factor | Bias |
|---|---|
| FII Cash Activity | Bullish |
| Option Chain Data | Bearish |
| Price Action | Bearish |
| Pro Activity | Bearish |
| Gift Nifty | Slightly Bullish |
🎯 Summary:
Market is conflicted. FII buying and Gift Nifty suggest optimism, but derivative market data shows cautious to bearish tone. Expect volatility within a tight range unless global cues improve sharply.
Educational Disclaimer
Disclaimer:
This article is intended solely for educational purposes. It is not a buy or sell recommendation. All stock market predictions and derivative market analysis presented here are based on publicly available data. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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