Market Analysis for 14th July Based on Derivative Market Data
Today's Market Movement & FII Cash Activity
The Indian stock market closed bearish on 11th July, with Nifty ending at 25,149, down from the previous close of 25,355.25. The day's range was 25,129 - 25,322.45, with an opening at 25,255.5, indicating weak follow-through buying.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash market, offloading ₹5,155.68 Cr, while DIIs provided support with ₹3,482.95 Cr in buying. Historically, FII selling leads to bearish trends, and today's derivative data confirms this sentiment.
Globally, crude oil traded at $66.9/barrel, while the Indian Rupee hovered near 85.77/$. European markets were bullish, but Dow Futures were flat to bearish. Gift Nifty is currently trading at 25,217, suggesting a muted opening for Indian markets.
Derivative Market Data Breakdown
Market Participants Data (FIIs, DIIs, Clients, Pros)
The derivative market positions reveal key insights:
- FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors):
- Net short in Index Futures (-6,250 long vs. +12,261 short).
- Increased Put writing in Index Options (69,880 Put longs vs. 51,679 Put shorts).
- Bearish stance in Stock Futures (2,896 long vs. 33,608 short).
- DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors):
- Net short in Index Futures (110 long vs. -2,500 short).
- Minimal activity in Index Options but aggressive Stock Futures selling (9,857 long vs. 7,194 short).
- Pro Traders (Key Market Movers):
- Net long in Index Futures (2,569 long vs. 502 short).
- Heavy Call writing in Index Options (288,017 Call longs vs. 265,648 Call shorts).
- Bullish in Stock Options (24,635 Call longs vs. 71,156 Call shorts).
Key Takeaway: FIIs and DIIs are bearish, while Pro traders are cautiously optimistic.
Nifty Option Chain Analysis (Nearest Expiry)
- Max Pain Strike: 25,000 (Highest Open Interest in PE).
- PCR (Put-Call Ratio): 0.76 (Bearish sentiment).
- Highest Call OI: 25,500 & 25,600 (Resistance zones).
- Highest Put OI: 25,000 (Strong Support).
- Call Writing: Aggressive at 25,300 & 25,400.
- Put Writing: Significant at 25,000 & 25,100.
Observation: The derivative market suggests 25,000 as critical support, while 25,500-25,600 acts as resistance.
Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis (Nearest Expiry)
- Max Pain Strike: 56,000 (Highest PE OI).
- PCR: 0.88 (Neutral to slightly bearish).
- Highest Call OI: 57,000 & 57,500 (Resistance).
- Highest Put OI: 56,000 (Support).
- Call Writing: Strong at 57,000.
- Put Writing: Notable at 56,000.
Observation: 56,000 is crucial support, while 57,000-57,500 is a resistance zone.
Nifty & Bank Nifty Cumulative Data (All Expiries)
- Nifty:
- Total CE OI: 30.6 Lakh vs. PE OI: 23.3 Lakh (Bearish bias).
- CE OI Change: +11.18 Lakh (Fresh shorting).
- PE OI Change: +4.54 Lakh (Hedging).
- Bank Nifty:
- Total CE OI: 5.14 Lakh vs. PE OI: 4.56 Lakh (Neutral).
- CE OI Change: +23,624 (Mild bearishness).
- PE OI Change: +3,478 (Limited hedging).
Key Insight: The derivative market signals Nifty weakness, while Bank Nifty remains range-bound.
Monday Market Analysis (14th July)
Nifty Outlook:
- Bearish below 25,200, with support at 25,000.
- Resistance at 25,400-25,500.
- Gift Nifty at 25,217 suggests a flat to negative opening.
- If FIIs continue selling, a breakdown below 25,000 is possible.
Bank Nifty Outlook:
- Range-bound between 56,000 - 57,000.
- Break below 56,000 could trigger sharp selling.
- Recovery possible only if Nifty sustains above 25,200.
Global Cues Impact:
- Dow Futures flat-to-negative may add pressure.
- Crude oil stability could support energy stocks.
Derivative Market Signals Caution
The derivative market data suggests:
✔ Nifty is bearish (FII selling, high Call writing).
✔ Bank Nifty is range-bound (56,000-57,000).
✔ Pro traders are hedging, indicating uncertainty.
✔ 25,000 is make-or-break support for Nifty.
Trading Strategy:
- Sell on rallies near 25,400-25,500 (Nifty).
- Bank Nifty traders should watch 56,000 for support breaks.
Disclaimer for the article 14th July Derivative Market Analysis:
This derivative market analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not a buy/sell recommendation. Consult a financial advisor before trading. Market risks apply.