Market Prediction for 17 July based on cash & derivative market data
The Indian stock market closed flat on 16 July, with Nifty at 25,212.05 (previous close: 25,195.80) and Bank Nifty at 57,168.95 (previous close: 57,006.65). The market remained range-bound, with Nifty fluctuating between 25,121.05 and 25,255, while Bank Nifty traded between 56,937.6 and 57,276.55.
Cash Market Activity (FII/DII)
- FIIs sold ₹1,795.23 Cr in the cash market, indicating bearish sentiment.
- DIIs bought ₹1,221.21 Cr, providing some support.
Historically, FII selling in cash markets leads to short-term bearishness, while DII buying cushions the fall. Today’s flat closing suggests indecision before a potential breakout.
Derivative Market Participant data
FII/DII & Pro Trader Activity
Participant | Futures Position | Options Activity | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
FII | Net Short | Heavy Call Writing | 🚨 Bearish |
DII | Net Long | Minimal Activity | ✅ Mild Bullish |
Pro Traders | Long Futures | Put Writing | ⚠️ Cautious |
Retail | Net Long | Call Buying | ❗ Over-optimistic |
Key Takeaway: FIIs are aggressively short, while retail traders remain bullish - a classic warning sign.
Nifty Option Chain (Current Expiry)
Resistance: 25,500 (Max Call OI)
Support: 25,200 (Max Put OI)
PCR Ratio: 0.90 (Neutral to Bearish)
Call Writing at 25,300-25,500 suggests upside capped
Bank Nifty Option Chain (Current Expiry)
Resistance: 57,500 (Call OI Peak)
Support: 57,000 (Put Base)
PCR Ratio: 0.91 (Neutral)
Watch: 57,200 breakout for directional move
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction
Nifty Outlook
- Bearish Below 25,100 (Next support 25,000)
- Bullish Only Above 25,500 (Needs FII buying)
Bank Nifty Outlook
- Weakness Below 56,800 (Target 56,500)
- Strength Above 57,500 (Unlikely without DII support)
Trading Strategy
Nifty: Sell rallies near 25,400-25,450 (SL 25,500)
Bank Nifty: Short near 57,300 (SL 57,500)
Hedge: Buy ATM Puts if support breaks
Global Cues to Watch
US Fed rate cut expectations
Domestic Q1 earnings results
FII selling continuation risk
Final Verdict
Short-term Bearish Bias due to:
- FII selling pressure
- Heavy Call writing
- PCR below 1
Range-bound trade likely between:
- Nifty 25,100-25,500
- Bank Nifty 56,800-57,500
⚠ Disclaimer
"This analysis is for educational purposes only. Consult your financial advisor before trading. Markets are risky - never trade without proper risk management."