Market Prediction for 2nd July 2025
Today’s Market Movement & FII Cash Activity
The Indian stock market closed with a flat-to-negative bias amid mixed global cues. Nifty ended at 25,541.8, while Bank Nifty settled at 57,459.45. The market witnessed an inside candle on the daily chart, indicating consolidation. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the cash market (-₹1,970.03 Cr), while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought ₹725.60 Cr. Globally, crude oil traded at $65/barrel, and the rupee hovered near 85.47 against the dollar. European markets were flat to bearish, and Dow futures indicated a subdued sentiment.
Analysis of Market Participant Data (F&O)
Client Category
- Clients: Net long in futures and options, with significant call writing in index options.
- DIIs: Increased short positions in stock futures, indicating caution.
- FIIs: Mixed activity—long in index futures but short in stock futures.
- Pro Traders: Aggressive call writing in index options, suggesting a bearish bias.
Key Observations
- FIIs’ selling in cash market aligns with their short build-up in derivatives.
- Pro traders’ high put writing hints at support levels being tested.
Nifty & Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis
Nifty (Current Expiry)
- Max Pain: Around 25,500, acting as a pivot.
- PCR (Put-Call Ratio): 0.88, indicating slight bearishness.
- Notable Strikes:
- 25,500 PE saw heavy OI addition, suggesting strong support.
- 25,600 CE holds the highest OI, acting as resistance.
Bank Nifty (Current Expiry)
- Max Pain: Near 57,500, a crucial level.
- PCR: 1.14, showing bullish sentiment.
- Notable Strikes:
- 57,500 PE has significant OI, indicating strong support.
- 58,000 CE has high OI, acting as resistance.
Notable Option Activity
- Nifty: Heavy call writing at 25,600, while put writing was seen at 25,500.
- Bank Nifty: Strong put accumulation at 57,000, suggesting downside protection.
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction
- Nifty: Expect 25,500–25,700 range; break below 25,500 may trigger further downside.
- Bank Nifty: Likely to trade between 57,200–57,800; a close above 57,800 could signal bullish momentum.
- Overall Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish due to FII selling and global cues.
Institutional Activity & Sentiment
- FIIs: Bearish (cash selling + short build-up).
- DIIs: Mildly bullish (cash buying + selective long positions).
- Pro Traders: Playing both sides but leaning bearish via call writing.
Trade Recommendations
- Nifty: Sell on rallies near 25,650–25,700 with a stop loss at 25,750.
- Bank Nifty: Buy near 57,200–57,300 for a bounce to 57,700–57,800.
- Hedging Strategy: Consider put spreads if Nifty breaks 25,450.
Final Verdict
The market is in a consolidation phase with a neutral-to-bearish bias. FII selling and global cues may keep pressure intact, but strong put writing at lower levels suggests limited downside. Traders should stay cautious and look for confirmation before taking aggressive positions.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not a buy/sell recommendation. Consult a financial advisor before trading. Market risks are involved; trade responsibly.