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Monday Market Prediction 21st July 2025 | Indian Stock Market

Derivative & Cash-Flow Based Outlook (Updated after decoding 18-Jul-2025 EOD data)
18 July 2025 by
P. Kalita

Monday Market Prediction 21st July 2025 | Indian Stock Market

On July 18, 2025, the Indian stock market experienced a downturn, primarily driven by continued selling pressure from foreign institutional investors in the cash segment. Notably, leading banking stocks, including Axis Bank, were significant contributors to the overall market decline.

Today’s (18-Jul-2025) Market Recap – Quick Snapshot

Markets closed Friday on a bearish note after FII cash sales of ₹2.9 K Cr; NIFTY slipped ‑0.6 % to 24 968 and BANK NIFTY ‑1 % to 56 283. Option data shows heavy call writing at 25 100 and 57 000, keeping Monday’s bias tilted down. Key supports to watch: 24 950 (NIFTY) & 56 000 (BNF)

ParameterNIFTY 50BANK NIFTY
Close24 968.456 283
Open25 108.5556 524.25
Day Range24 918 – 25 14456 204 – 56 705
Prev. Close25 111.4556 828.8
Net Change–143 (-0.57 %)–545 (-0.96 %)
FII CashSELL 2 894 Cr—
DII CashBUY 1 663 Cr—

Key Takeaway: Bears dominated the session after FII off-loaded nearly 2.9 K Cr in cash segment, dragging both indices below their opening levels.

🧩 Decoding the Derivative Dashboard

 Market Participant Data (18-Jul-2025 EOD)

Client

Long Contracts

Short Contracts

Long %

Short %

FII138 618191 56224.1 %17.4 %
DII11 36820 4711.5 %23.7 %
PRO547 361466 58524.3 %21.7 %
Client965 374984 10350.1 %37.2 %

Insights

  • FII – Net short in Index Futures (-2 306 long vs 10 011 short) and continued writing Index Calls (98 536 short vs 60 539 long). Bearish bias intact.
  • PRO – Aggressive long accumulation in Index Calls (321 463 long) but also heavy call writing (258 629 short). Tactical long straddle/strangle expected.
  • DII – Marginal long in Stock Futures but massive shorts in Index Futures (-4 353). Defensive posture.
  • Retail (Client) – Long skew in both Index & Stock options. Vulnerable to long liquidation.

 NIFTY Option-Chain Heat-Map (Near Expiry)

Strike: 25,000

  • CE OI: 79,329
  • PE OI: 70,260
  • PCR OI: 0.88
  • LTP CE: 136.2
  • LTP PE: 121.85
  • IV CE: 10.6%
  • IV PE: 9.84%

Strike: 25,050

  • CE OI: 33,143
  • PE OI: 14,237
  • PCR OI: 0.43
  • LTP CE: 111.2
  • LTP PE: 146.6
  • IV CE: —
  • IV PE: —

Strike: 25,100

  • CE OI: 107,106
  • PE OI: 28,536
  • PCR OI: 0.27
  • LTP CE: 90.35
  • LTP PE: 175.2
  • IV CE: —
  • IV PE: —

Observations

  • Maximum Call OI at 25 200 & 25 100 → Immediate resistance cluster.
  • Maximum Put OI at 25 000 → First meaningful support.
  • PCR OI below 1.0 (0.78) → Bears in driver’s seat.

 BANK NIFTY Option-Chain Snapshot

Strike: 56,500

  • CE OI: 24,994
  • PE OI: 25,071
  • PCR OI: 1.00
  • LTP CE: 479.1
  • LTP PE: 609.95
  • IV CE: —
  • IV PE: 13.77%

Strike: 57,000

  • CE OI: 56,718
  • PE OI: 28,231
  • PCR OI: 0.50
  • LTP CE: 290.45
  • LTP PE: 917.75
  • IV CE: —
  • IV PE: —

Strike: 56,000

  • CE OI: 40,601
  • PE OI: 64,631
  • PCR OI: 1.59
  • LTP CE: 744.85
  • LTP PE: 379.1
  • IV CE: —
  • IV PE: —

Observations

  • Max Pain hovering around 56 500 – 56 600.
  • Heavy PE writing at 56 000 → Strong support.
  • CE writing at 57 000 → Cap on upsides.

 Cumulative Derivatives Meter (All Expiries)

MetricNIFTYBANK NIFTY
Total CE OI29.3 L6.78 L
Total PE OI23.1 L5.33 L
PCR OI0.786 (Bearish)0.786 (Bearish)
CE Volume2.32 Cr18.3 L
PE Volume2.43 Cr16 L
IV SkewCE < PE (Calls cheaper)CE < PE

Monday Market Prediction (21-Jul-2025)

Probable NIFTY Trajectory

  • Immediate Resistance: 25 100 – 25 150 (confluence of 20-DMA & Call OI wall).
  • Strong Resistance: 25 200 – 25 250.
  • Immediate Support: 24 950 – 25 000 (Put OI cluster + psychological).
  • Critical Support: 24 850 (violation may open 24 600).

Base-case: Expect a gap-down start near 24 920-24 940. If DII buying emerges, pull-back capped at 25 100. Close below 24 950 will confirm next leg down.

Probable BANK NIFTY Trajectory

  • Resistance: 56 800 – 57 000 (heavy Call OI).
  • Support: 56 300 – 56 400 (current spot).
  • Critical Support: 56 000 (PE writing base).

Base-case: Sideways-to-negative drift between 56 000 – 56 800. Break of 56 000 may trigger fast move to 55 600.

Derivative Strategies 

(Educational Only)

1. Bear Put Spread

  • Instrument: NIFTY
  • Strikes:
    • Buy 25,000 PE
    • Sell 24,800 PE
  • Rationale: Cheap IV + PCR < 1

2. Iron Condor

  • Instrument: BANKNIFTY
  • Strikes:
    • Sell 57,000 CE & 56,000 PE
    • Buy 57,500 CE & 55,500 PE
  • Rationale: Range-bound
Market Prediction Guide

(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.)