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Market prediction next week (14,15,16,17 &18 July)

Based on cash & derivate market data
13 July 2025 by
P. Kalita
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Indian Stock Market Prediction Next Week:

FII/DII Activity, F&O Trends, and Key Levels

The Indian stock market has witnessed significant volatility in the past week, influenced by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), domestic institutional investors (DIIs), and derivatives activity. With the Nifty 50 hovering around 25,140 and Bank Nifty near 56,715, market sentiment remains cautious. This article provides a detailed market prediction for the upcoming week, analyzing FII/DII cash and F&O positions, option chain data, and price trends.

Key Highlights from Last Week

  1. Nifty Performance: The index closed at 25,149.85, down 0.81% on Friday (July 11).
  2. FIIs Net Sellers in Cash Market: FIIs sold ₹5,104 Cr while DIIs bought ₹3,558 Cr.
  3. F&O Activity: FIIs were net short in index futures (₹3,537 Cr) and index options (₹3,242 Cr).
  4. Option Chain Data:
    • Nifty PCR at 0.76 (Bearish bias).
    • Bank Nifty PCR at 0.88 (Slightly less bearish).
    • Max Pain Levels: Nifty at 25,000, Bank Nifty at 56,000.

Detailed Market Analysis

FII/DII Cash Market Activity 

  • FIIs were net sellers for the week, with total outflows of ₹14,729 Cr (Gross Sales: ₹1,17,099 Cr vs. Purchases: ₹1,02,370 Cr).
  • DIIs supported the market, buying ₹12,374 Cr (Gross Purchases: ₹1,24,076 Cr, Sales: ₹1,11,702 Cr).
  • Key Takeaway: Persistent FII selling indicates global risk-off sentiment, while DIIs are absorbing the selling pressure.

F&O Index & Stock Derivatives 

Index Futures & Options 

  • FIIs net short in Index Futures: ₹10,243 Cr (Weekly).
  • Index Options saw mixed activity: Net short ₹3,242 Cr on Friday, but earlier in the week, they were net long.
  • Implied Volatility (IV):
    • Nifty CE IV at 12.93, PE IV at 25.28 (Higher put premiums suggest hedging).
    • Bank Nifty CE IV at 2.66, PE IV at 3.70 (Low volatility in Bank Nifty).

Stock Futures & Options 

  • FIIs net short in Stock Futures: ₹5,644 Cr (Weekly).
  • Stock Options saw net buying: ₹3,757 Cr, indicating selective bullish bets.

Option Chain Analysis

Nifty 50

  • Max Pain at 25,000: Indicates strong put writing at this level.
  • Highest Open Interest (OI):
    • CE at 25,500 (3.06L contracts).
    • PE at 25,000 (2.87L contracts).
  • PCR at 0.76: Bearish sentiment.

Bank Nifty

  • Max Pain at 56,000: Key support.
  • Highest OI:
    • CE at 56,000 (5.14L contracts).
    • PE at 56,000 (4.56L contracts).
  • PCR at 0.88: Neutral to slightly bearish.

Nifty Price & Volume Trends 

  • Declining Volumes: Lower participation as Nifty fell.
  • Resistance at 25,500: Multiple rejections last week.
  • Support at 25,000: Strong put base.

Market Prediction for Next Week

Nifty 50 Outlook

  • Bearish Bias: PCR below 1, FIIs net short.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: 25,000 (Strong Put Base).
    • Resistance: 25,500 (Call OI Heavy).
  • If 25,000 breaks, next support at 24,800.
  • A move above 25,500 could trigger short-covering towards 25,800.

Bank Nifty Outlook

  • Range-Bound: PCR near 0.88, Max Pain at 56,000.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: 56,000 (Highest PE OI).
    • Resistance: 56,800 (Call OI Cluster).
  • Break below 56,000 could lead to 55,500.

FII/DII Activity Impact

  • If FIIs continue selling, downside pressure will persist.
  • DIIs may cushion falls, but sustained selling could break key supports.

Derivative Sentiment

  • FIIs’ short positions in Index Futures suggest caution.
  • Stock-specific action likely due to mixed F&O data.

Global Cues & Events

  • US Inflation Data (Upcoming): Could impact FII flows.
  • Domestic Earnings Season: Stock-specific volatility expected.

Trading Strategy for Next Week

For Nifty Traders

  • Short on rallies towards 25,300-25,500 (SL: 25,600).
  • Buy near 25,000 (SL: 24,900) for a bounce.

For Bank Nifty Traders

  • Sell near 56,700 (SL: 57,000).
  • Buy near 56,000 (SL: 55,800).

Stock-Specific Approach

  • Bullish: Stocks with high DII buying & strong F&O OI.
  • Bearish: Stocks with FII selling & weak technical.

Final Verdict: Cautiously Bearish

  • Nifty likely to test 25,000, with a break leading to 24,800.
  • Bank Nifty may consolidate between 56,000-56,800.
  • FII flows & global cues will dictate trend.

Investors should hedge positions, while traders can play the range with strict stop-losses.

Market Prediction Guide

Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Consult an advisor before trading.

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