Nifty 50 Intraday Prediction for 13th Aug, Today with AI

Nifty 50 Intraday Prediction for 13th Aug

with AI

Nifty 50 closed the previous session (August 12, 2025) at 24,487.40, down 0.40%, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating seller dominance at higher levels. The index slipped below the key support of 24,500, which aligns with the 100-day SMA and recent swing lows. Intraday indicators show RSI (hourly) refusing to drop below 40, suggesting potential buying interest on dips, but ADX points to a range-bound market. Implied volatility (India VIX) remains stable around 12.2, not signaling extreme fear. Option Greeks indicate put unwinding at 24,300–24,500 strikes and call writing at 24,500–24,600, with PCR at 0.84 (mildly bearish). Support is now at 24,450–24,390, with resistance at 24,570–24,650. A break above 24,650 could trigger short covering, while below 24,390 may accelerate downside to 24,330.

Fundamental Analysis

Macro cues are mixed: RBI maintained repo rate at 5.5% in its August MPC, retaining a neutral stance amid US tariff threats (25% on Indian exports like textiles and pharma due to India's Russian oil purchases). GDP forecast held at 6.5% for FY26, with inflation projected at 3.1% (down from 3.7%), but risks from geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions noted. FIIs net sold ₹3,398.8 crore (adding net shorts in Nifty futures), signaling caution over tariffs, while DIIs net bought ₹3,507.93 crore, providing domestic support. Sectoral news: Auto and Pharma show strength; Realty and Consumer Durables lag. Global impact: US markets (S&P 500 +1.13%) rose on in-line inflation data boosting Fed rate-cut bets (September likely); Asian cues positive.

Real-Time News Sentiment

Headlines emphasize a positive open (GIFT Nifty +95 points at 24,650), but overhang from US-India trade tensions (Trump's potential tariff hike to 50% if India continues Russian imports). RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra downplayed immediate tariff impact unless retaliatory, but warned of export slowdown. Geopolitical developments: US-Russia talks on August 15 may discuss sanctions on Russian crude, potentially affecting India. X sentiment (from recent posts) is cautiously optimistic for today—gap-up open expected, but volatility warned if 24,600 resistance holds. Corporate announcements muted; high delivery in RIL, HDFC Bank suggests accumulation.

Intraday Probability Estimates

Based on positive global cues and GIFT Nifty, but tempered by tariff risks and FII selling:

1. Upside: 50% (emphasizing US market rally, DII buying, and RSI support; potential short-covering rally if 24,650 breaks).
2. Downside: 30% (FII shorts, tariff uncertainty, and broken 24,500 support could drag lower).
3. Volatile Market (big up or down): 20% (range-bound setup with high OI buildup; sudden news on tariffs or US data could swing 100+ points).

Probabilities for Finishing the Day (from 24,580)

Assumptions: Emphasizing technical support at 24,450 (prior lows), positive global sentiment, but FII outflows and tariff headlines as downside risks. Flat defined as ±0.2% (±50 points).

• Higher: 45% (gap-up momentum sustains on DII flows and no negative tariff updates).
• Lower: 35% (tariff escalation or profit-taking at resistance pulls back).
• Roughly flat: 20% (range-bound trade amid mixed cues).

Option Buying Recommendation

For high-risk intraday trading (9:30 AM–3:00 PM, August 28 expiry), focus on near-ATM strikes around 24,600 (closest to current 24,580). Given positive bias from global cues but volatility risks, buying call options only near ATM is likely to yield the highest expected profit (mild upside edge).

• Buying Call Options Only (e.g., 24,600 CE): Expected return ~25% (if Nifty closes 24,650+; theta decay moderate with 15 days to expiry, delta/gamma favor upside momentum). Major risks: Sudden volatility spikes from tariff news (IV crush erodes premium); unexpected FII selling caps gains.
• Buying Put Options Only (e.g., 24,600 PE): Expected return ~15% (if downside triggers; but less likely given positive open). Major risks: Time decay (theta) in range-bound market; global rally erodes value quickly.

Avoid buying both unless volatility surges (straddle unprofitable in low VIX).

Actionable Summary

• Specific Strategy: Buy calls only (positive global bias outweighs tariff risks for intraday).
• Strike(s): 24,600 CE (near ATM for optimal delta; add 24,650 CE if breakout confirms).
• Premium & Probability: ~₹150 premium (based on recent chains; adjust live); ~45% probability of profit (expires August 28; target 20–30% gain intraday, stop at 10% loss). Risks: High theta in flat close, IV spike on news.

Disclaimer : Just a friendly reminder that this information is for educational purposes only and isn't meant as a buy or sell suggestion!