Market Analysis for 17th June 25

Market Analysis for 17th June 25: 

Today, the Nifty closed at 24,946.50, showing resilience despite mixed cues from global markets. The cash market saw DIIs as net buyers (₹5,607.64 Cr) while FIIs were net sellers (₹2,287.69 Cr), indicating domestic strength countering foreign outflows.

Key Observations from Market Participant Data (F&O)

1. FIIs increased Future Stock Shorts (32,153 contracts), suggesting cautiousness.
2. DIIs added Future Index Longs (6,023 contracts), signaling bullish sentiment.
3. Pro traders hold significant Option Index Put Longs (3,59,066 contracts), hinting at hedging against downside risks.
4. PCR (Put-Call Ratio) OI shows bearish skew in near-term strikes (PCR Change % negative for higher strikes).

Nifty Option Chain Analysis (Nearest Expiry)

• Max Pain: Around 25,000 (highest OI concentration).
• Key Resistance: 25,200 (Call OI: 79,512) and 25,100 (Call OI: 54,326).
• Key Support: 24,900 (Put OI: 76,053) and 24,800 (Put OI: 93,454).
• PCR Change %: Sharp decline in higher strikes, indicating profit booking in Calls.

Notable Option Activity

• 25,000 PE saw 24,081 contracts added, suggesting strong support.
• 25,000 CE witnessed 37,550 contracts unwound, reducing upside pressure.
• IVs (Implied Volatility): Slightly elevated for Puts (~14-16%), indicating hedging demand.

Tomorrow’s Market Prediction

Bullish Case (If Nifty Holds 24,900)

• A bounce towards 25,100-25,200 is possible if DII buying continues.
• Break above 25,200 could trigger short-covering towards 25,350.

Bearish Case (If Nifty Breaks 24,800)

• Sustained FII selling may drag Nifty towards 24,600-24,700.
• A close below 24,800 could intensify Put writing, increasing downside risk.

Neutral Strategy

• Range-bound trade (24,800-25,200) likely unless fresh triggers emerge.
• Bank Nifty Watch: Heavy Put writing at 54,000-53,500 suggests support.

Institutional Activity & Sentiment

• FIIs remain net short in index futures, indicating caution.
• DIIs are supporting the market, but sustainability is key.
• Retail (Client category) holds significant Call positions, making 25,200-25,300 a supply zone.

Trade Recommendations

1. For Swing Traders: Buy on dips near 24,900-24,950 with SL at 24,800 for target 25,150-25,200.
2. Option Sellers: Sell 25,300 CE and 24,700 PE for premium decay.
3. Aggressive Traders: Straddle near 25,000 if volatility spikes.

Final Verdict

Nifty is likely to trade in a range with a slight bullish bias, supported by DII inflows but capped by FII selling and Call OI at higher levels. Watch 24,900 (support) and 25,200 (resistance) for breakout/breakdown signals.

Stay tuned to Option Matrix India for real-time updates!