Market Prediction 30th June 2025
Today, the Indian stock market exhibited bullish tendencies, closing at 25,637.80 (Nifty) and 57,443.90 (Bank Nifty). FIIs were net buyers in the cash market (₹1,397.02 Cr), while DIIs sold ₹588.93 Cr. The derivative market data reveals strong long buildup in index futures and call options, indicating bullish sentiment. Below, we decode today’s F&O activity, institutional positioning, and global cues to predict tomorrow’s trend.
Key Observations from Market Participant Data (F&O)
- Client & Pro Traders:
- Clients hold significant long positions in index options (Call: 396,244, Put: 567,453) but are net short in futures.
- Pro traders show a balanced stance with long dominance in futures (28,373 vs. 22,502 shorts) and strong call writing in index options.
- FIIs & DIIs:
- FIIs are net buyers in cash but mixed in derivatives—long in index futures (14,611) and short in stock futures (-16,727).
- DIIs are net short in futures (54,520) with minimal options activity, indicating hedging.
- Sentiment Shift:
- PCR (Put-Call Ratio) for Nifty at 1.24 suggests bullish bias.
- Bank Nifty PCR at 1.13 shows slightly weaker but still positive sentiment.
Global Cues
- Crude Oil: Trading at $65.7/barrel, stable but under pressure.
- Rupee: Slightly weak at ₹85.5/$, but no major volatility expected.
- European Markets: Bullish, supporting risk-on sentiment.
- US Futures (Dow): Flat to slightly bullish, no major negative triggers.
Impact on Indian Markets: Global stability supports a bullish undertone, but traders should watch crude and USD/INR for sudden shifts.
Nifty & Bank Nifty Option Chain Analysis
Nifty (Spot: 25,637.80)
- Max Pain: Around 25,500, indicating support.
- Highest OI:
- PE OI at 25,500 (1,22,092) – Strong support.
- CE OI at 26,000 (1,08,235) – Resistance.
- PCR (1.24): Bullish bias.
- IVs (Implied Volatility):
- CE IV: 10.03% (26000 strike)
- PE IV: 11.23% (26000 strike) – Suggests put writers are active.
Bank Nifty (Spot: 57,443.90)
- Max Pain: Around 57,000, acting as support.
- Highest OI:
- PE OI at 57,000 (31,834)
- CE OI at 58,000 (21,625)
- PCR (1.13): Neutral to mildly bullish.
- IVs:
- CE IV: 10.28% (57,500 strike)
- PE IV: 14.52% (57,500 strike) – Higher put IV indicates hedging.
Notable Option Activity
- Nifty 26,000 CE: Huge OI addition (41,656) with price rise (LTP: 28.45), indicating bullish bets.
- Nifty 25,500 PE: Massive OI addition (53,407), suggesting strong support.
- Bank Nifty 57,500 CE: OI surge (4,505) with rising premiums, signaling bullishness.
- Bank Nifty 57,000 PE: OI buildup (7,419), acting as a key support.
Monday Market Prediction
Nifty Outlook:
- Bullish if holds above 25,600 (target: 25,800-26,000).
- Bearish if breaks 25,500 (next support: 25,300).
Bank Nifty Outlook:
- Bullish above 57,500 (target: 58,000).
- Bearish below 57,000 (support: 56,500).
Overall Bias: Bullish (FII cash buying + strong call writing in Nifty).
Institutional Activity & Sentiment
- FIIs: Net buyers in cash, mixed in F&O (long futures, short stocks).
- DIIs: Net sellers, likely profit booking.
- Pro Traders: Net long in futures, indicating confidence.
Sentiment: Bullish but cautious due to high OI at 26,000 CE.
Trade Recommendations
Nifty:
- Bullish Strategy: Buy 25,600 CE or sell 25,400 PE.
- Bearish Hedge: Buy 25,500 PE if market weakens.
Bank Nifty:
- Bullish Play: Buy 57,500 CE or sell 57,000 PE.
- Bearish Hedge: Buy 57,000 PE if support breaks.
Risk Management: Use strict stop-losses (1-2% of capital).
Final Verdict
Market Prediction for 30th June: Bullish with caution.
- Nifty Range: 25,500 – 25,800
- Bank Nifty Range: 57,000 – 58,000
FII buying in cash and strong call OI buildup suggest upside, but traders should watch 26,000 CE resistance in Nifty.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. We do not recommend any buy/sell trades. Consult a financial advisor before investing. Market risks are involved; trade responsibly.