Nifty 50 Intraday Prediction for 8th July

Nifty 50 Intraday Trading Strategy for 8th Aug, 2025

Overview

As of 9:22 AM IST on August 8, 2025, the Nifty 50 index is trading at 24,560, slightly below the previous day's close of 24,596.15 (August 7, 2025). This report provides intraday probability estimates for whether the Nifty 50 will close higher, lower, or remain roughly flat, along with a recommended option buying strategy for a high-risk approach using the monthly August expiry (August 28, 2025). The analysis integrates technical indicators, fundamental factors, and real-time news sentiment to guide intraday trading decisions between 9:30 AM and 3:00 PM IST.

Technical Analysis

Candlestick Patterns and Intraday Indicators

• Current Position: The Nifty 50 opened with a gap-down at 24,560, indicating bearish sentiment at the start of the trading session.
• Recent Range: Over the past few days, Nifty has been oscillating within a range of 24,535–24,785, as noted in recent market analyses. The current level of 24,560 is near the lower end of this range, close to a critical support at 24,530.
• Descending Channel: The index is trading within a descending channel, suggesting bearish momentum unless it breaks above the resistance at 24,585. A move above 24,585 could trigger upside momentum, while a break below 24,530 may lead to further declines towards 24,500 or lower.
• Support and Resistance:
  • Support: 24,530 (immediate), 24,500 (next level).
  • Resistance: 24,585 (immediate), 24,700–24,750 (strong resistance zone).
• Implied Volatility and Option Greeks: Without specific options chain data, we assume that implied volatility (IV) is elevated due to recent market uncertainty (e.g., U.S. tariffs). Near ATM options (strikes around 24,500–24,600) typically have a delta of approximately 0.5, making them sensitive to intraday price movements.

Fundamental Analysis

• Macroeconomic Cues:
  • U.S. Tariffs: The U.S. has doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, impacting sectors like textiles, gems, footwear, and oil refining. Analysts estimate a potential GDP reduction of 30–40 basis points if these tariffs persist for a year, creating a bearish outlook for Indian equities.
  • FII/DII Flows: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn approximately $2 billion in July and $900 million in August, signaling caution. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been net buyers (₹6,794 crore in the same period), providing some support but not enough to offset FPI selling pressure.
• Sectoral News:
  • The Nifty Financial Services index declined by 0.49% on August 7, driven by selling in heavyweights like HDFC Bank (-1.16%) and Bajaj Finance (-1.55%). This weakness in financials, a significant component of Nifty 50, adds to the bearish sentiment.
  • Defensive sectors like FMCG have shown resilience, but broader market sentiment remains cautious.
• Global Markets Impact:
  • Global headwinds, including concerns over U.S.-India trade negotiations and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcements, are contributing to market uncertainty. The GIFT Nifty futures indicated a modest recovery on August 7, but sentiment remains subdued.

Real-time News Sentiment

• Market Recovery on August 7: On August 7, 2025, Nifty 50 closed at 24,596.15, up 21.95 points (0.09%), driven by last-hour buying despite intraday lows caused by U.S. tariff announcements. This resilience suggests some buying interest but does not negate the overall bearish sentiment.
• Current Sentiment: The gap-down opening on August 8 reflects continued investor caution due to ongoing trade tensions and lack of immediate positive catalysts. No major corporate announcements or RBI commentary were noted for August 8, suggesting that tariff-related concerns dominate sentiment.

Intraday Probability Estimates

Based on the integrated analysis, the following probabilities are estimated for Nifty 50’s closing level on August 8, 2025, relative to the previous close of 24,596.15:

• Upside (closes above 24,596.15): 30%
  • A break above 24,585 could trigger buying interest, potentially pushing Nifty towards 24,700–24,750. However, this is less likely given the bearish technical setup and negative fundamentals.
• Downside (closes below 24,596.15): 60%
  • Proximity to the support at 24,530 and negative fundamentals (tariffs, FPI outflows) suggest a higher likelihood of a downward move. A break below 24,530 could lead to levels like 24,500 or lower.
• Volatile/Flat (closes within ±100 points of 24,596.15, i.e., 24,496.15–24,696.15): 10%
  • While intraday volatility is possible due to market uncertainty, the bias leans towards a directional move rather than a flat or highly volatile day without a clear trend.

Option Buying Strategy

Strategy Options

The user seeks a high-risk intraday trading strategy using Nifty 50 options with the August 28, 2025, expiry, focusing on buying either call options only or put options only near ATM. The current Nifty level is 24,560, so near ATM strikes are 24,500 (slightly below current, in-the-money for calls, out-of-the-money for puts) and 24,600 (slightly above current, out-of-the-money for calls, in-the-money for puts).

Buying Call Options

• Strike: 24,500 call (in-the-money) or 24,600 call (out-of-the-money).
• Profit Scenario: Nifty must rise significantly above the strike (e.g., above 24,600 for the 24,500 call) to offset the premium and generate profit.
• Expected Return: Low, given the 30% probability of an upside move. For example:
  • Assume a 24,500 call premium of ₹120 per lot (indicative).
  • If Nifty closes at 24,700, the call value could be approximately max(24,700 - 24,500, 0) + time value ≈ ₹200 + ₹80 = ₹280.
  • Profit = ₹280 - ₹120 = ₹160, or 133% return.
  • However, the low probability of this scenario reduces expected returns.
• Risks:
  • Low Probability: Only a 30% chance of closing higher, reducing the likelihood of profit.
  • Time Decay: Minimal for monthly options intraday but still a factor if Nifty remains flat.
  • Volatility Spikes: A sudden drop in implied volatility could reduce the option’s time value.

Buying Put Options

• Strike: 24,500 put (out-of-the-money) or 24,600 put (in-the-money).
• Profit Scenario: Nifty must fall below the strike (e.g., below 24,500 for the 24,500 put) to gain intrinsic value.
• Expected Return: Higher, given the 60% probability of a downside move. For example:
  • Assume a 24,500 put premium of ₹100 per lot (indicative, lower due to out-of-the-money status).
  • If Nifty closes at 24,400, the put value could be approximately max(24,500 - 24,400, 0) + time value ≈ ₹100 + ₹80 = ₹180.
  • Profit = ₹180 - ₹100 = ₹80, or 80% return. A larger drop (e.g., to 24,300) could yield higher returns (e.g., 150%).
• Risks:
  • Rebound Risk: Unexpected positive news (e.g., trade deal progress) could push Nifty higher, rendering the put worthless or reducing its value.
  • Time Decay: Minimal intraday but relevant if Nifty remains flat.
  • Volatility Shocks: A sudden increase in volatility could benefit the put, but a drop could hurt time value.

Recommended Strategy

• Buy 24,500 Put Options:
  • Rationale: The 60% probability of a downside move aligns with buying puts. The 24,500 put is slightly out-of-the-money (Nifty at 24,560 > 24,500), offering a lower premium and higher leverage for a high-risk approach. If Nifty falls below 24,500, the put gains intrinsic value, potentially yielding significant returns.
  • Estimated Premium: Approximately ₹100 per lot (indicative; actual premiums depend on implied volatility and market conditions).
  • Probability of Profit: Approximately 50%, assuming Nifty closes below 24,500. This is slightly lower than the 60% chance of closing below 24,596.15, as Nifty needs to fall further to make the put profitable.
  • Expected Return: If Nifty closes at 24,400, the return could be around 80% (as calculated above). A larger drop could push returns higher, aligning with the high-risk approach.

Actionable Summary

• Strategy: Buy 24,500 put options for intraday trading.
• Strike: 24,500 put (slightly out-of-the-money, offering high leverage).
• Premium: Approximately ₹100 per lot (indicative; verify with real-time options chain data).
• Probability of Profit: Around 50%, based on Nifty closing below 24,500, supported by a 60% chance of a broader downside move.
• Execution: Trade between 9:30 AM and 3:00 PM IST on August 8, 2025, with the August 28, 2025, expiry.
• Rationale: The bearish technical setup (descending channel, proximity to support at 24,530) and negative fundamentals (U.S. tariffs, FPI outflows) suggest a higher likelihood of a downward move, making puts the preferred choice for a high-risk strategy.
• Risks: A sudden market rebound due to positive news or a flat market could limit profitability. Monitor key levels (24,530 support, 24,585 resistance) and news updates closely.

Additional Considerations

• Monitoring: Watch for intraday price action around 24,530 (support) and 24,585 (resistance). A break below 24,530 could confirm the bearish outlook, while a move above 24,585 may signal a potential rebound.
• Volatility: Elevated implied volatility due to tariff concerns could increase option premiums, benefiting buyers if the move aligns with the strategy but increasing losses if the market moves against the position.
• Exit Strategy: For intraday trading, consider exiting the position by 3:00 PM IST to avoid overnight risks, especially given the potential for after-hours news impacting the market.

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell; it is intended solely for educational purposes.