Technical Analysis 26th June
The Indian stock market witnessed cautious trading on 25th June amid mixed global cues. The Nifty closed at 25,244.77, fluctuating between 25,125.05 and 25,266.80 with moderate volumes of 260.58 million shares. The market opened at 25,150.35, reflecting a neutral-to-bearish sentiment.
Key Observations of Market Closing
- Range-Bound Movement: Nifty traded in a tight range, indicating indecision among traders.
- Resistance at 25,317: A strong hurdle where multiple rejections were seen.
- Support at 25,171: A crucial level; a break below could trigger further downside.
- Volume Analysis: Lower-than-average volume suggests weak participation.
Global Cues Impacting Market Sentiment
- US-Israel-Iran Ceasefire: Despite a declared ceasefire, tensions persist, keeping crude oil volatile.
- Crude Oil Prices: Dropped below $65, easing inflation fears.
- Rupee Performance: Slightly weak at 86.073 against the USD.
- European Markets: Flat to bearish, lacking strong directional cues.
- Dow Futures: Trading flat, indicating muted global sentiment.
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction 26th June
The market is currently in a no-trading zone between 25,171 and 25,317. A decisive breakout or breakdown will dictate the next trend.
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
- If the 15-minute candle closes above 25,317, expect:
- First Target: 25,414
- Second Target: 25,500
- Trading Rule: No bearish trades if the candle is bullish.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown
- If the 15-minute candle closes below 25,171, expect:
- First Target: 25,050
- Second Target: 24,920
- Trading Rule: No bullish trades if the candle is bearish.
Scenario 3: False Breakout/Rejection
- If the price crosses 25,317 but closes below it, short with:
- First Target: Today’s closing (25,244) or 25,250
- Second Target: 25,170
- If the price crosses 25,171 but closes above it, go long with:
- First Target: 25,317
- Second Target: 25,414
Trade Recommendations
- For Long Positions: Wait for a confirmed close above 25,317.
- For Short Positions: Enter only if 25,171 is broken decisively.
- Strict Stop-Loss: Always maintain a stop-loss to avoid unexpected reversals.
Final Verdict
The market is in a wait-and-watch phase. Traders should remain cautious and avoid aggressive positions until a clear breakout/breakdown occurs. Focus on key levels (25,171 & 25,317) and trade only with confirmation.
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