Nifty Weekly Outlook
3 Scenarios for June 16-20
Option Matrix India | June 14, 2025
Global tensions and FII selling put the market on edge last week. As we head into the next week, what should traders expect? This simple, mobile-friendly analysis decodes the data to give you a clear outlook.
Last Week's Snapshot:
- Nifty Close: 24,718.60
- FIIs (Foreign Investors): Sold ₹1,233.47 Cr (Net Sell) 👎
- DIIs (Domestic Investors): Bought ₹2,906.13 Cr (Net Buy) 👍
Market Movers: FIIs Selling, DIIs Buying
The big story remains the same: Foreign Institutions are pulling money out, likely due to global risks. But our Domestic Institutions are buying everything they sell, providing solid support to the market. This tug-of-war is creating major indecision.
Who's Betting What? (Pro & Client Positions)
Let's look at the futures and options data to see what smart money and retail traders are doing.
- FIIs (Foreign): Net Bearish. They have more short positions, expecting the market to fall.
- DIIs (Domestic): Net Cautious. They are buying stocks but hedging their bets with derivatives.
- Pros (Smart Money): Net Slightly Bullish. They have more long positions but are also protected against a fall.
- Clients (Retail): Net Very Bullish. Holding many long positions, making them vulnerable if the market drops suddenly.
Nifty's Weekly Levels from Option Chain
The option chain gives us a clear map of the weekly battleground for the June 20 expiry.
- 🧱 Strong Resistance: 25,000 is the big wall. A huge number of call options have been sold here. Nifty will find it very hard to cross this level.
- 🛡️ Solid Support: 24,500 is the key support floor. A lot of put options have been written here, meaning traders don't expect Nifty to fall below this.
- PCR (Put-Call Ratio): Around 0.95, suggesting neutral to slightly cautious sentiment among option traders.
Global Red Flags to Watch
Don't ignore the world markets! Here's what matters next week:
- Geopolitical News: Tensions in the Middle East are high. Any escalation could hurt markets.
- Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices have spiked. Higher oil is negative for India and can increase market fear.
- Central Bank Meetings: The US Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will speak. Their commentary on interest rates will be crucial.
Nifty Weekly Prediction: 3 Possible Scenarios
Considering all the data, here is our weekly market view for option traders.
Scenario 1: Sideways to Bearish (High Chance)
Global worries and FII selling will likely push the market down at the start. Nifty might test the 24,500 support. If it holds, expect the market to trade in a range between 24,500 and 24,900. This is a good market for range-bound option strategies.
Scenario 2: Sharp Fall on Support Break (Medium Chance)
If the Nifty decisively breaks and closes below the 24,500 support level, the fall could be sharp. This would trigger stop-losses for retail traders, and the next stop could be 24,200.
Scenario 3: Unlikely Reversal (Low Chance)
A big rally is unlikely, but not impossible. If global tensions cool down and FIIs start buying, crossing the 25,000 resistance could trigger a massive short-covering rally towards 25,200. Keep an eye on global news for this possibility.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions, as market risks are involved.