Technical Analysis for 1st Aug 2025
In the dynamic landscape of financial markets, a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and international factors is crucial for making well-informed trading decisions. As we approach August 1, 2025, this technical analysis presents an in-depth forecast for the Indian stock market, with a particular emphasis on the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices. By meticulously analyzing price movements, identifying critical support and resistance levels, and considering global economic indicators, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike.
Today's Market Price Action
On July 31, 2025, the Indian stock market demonstrated a downward trend, as both primary indices concluded the trading session lower. Below is a concise summary of the day's market performance:
Index Performance Summary
Nifty 50
- Closing Price: 24,768.35
- Range (Low - High): 24,635 - 24,956.5
- Open Price: 24,642.25
- Previous Close: 24,855.05
- Candle Pattern: Bearish
Bank Nifty
- Closing Price: 55,961.95
- Range (Low - High): 55,547.35 - 56,406.2
- Open Price: 55,728.15
- Previous Close: 56,150.7
- Candle Pattern: Bearish
The Nifty 50 opened at 24,642.25 and fluctuated within a wide range, ultimately closing at 24,768.35, down from its previous close of 24,855.05. Similarly, the Bank Nifty opened at 55,728.15, traded between 55,547.35 and 56,406.2, and closed at 55,961.95, reflecting a bearish bias. These movements indicate a cautious market sentiment, likely influenced by both domestic and global factors.
Key Observations of Market Closing
Analyzing the market's behavior on July 31, 2025, provides valuable insights into the forces driving the Indian stock market:
- Elevated Trading Volume: The trading volume for both Nifty and Bank Nifty was above average, suggesting strong participation in the downward movement. This indicates that sellers were active, potentially driven by profit-taking or sector-specific concerns.
- High Volatility: The wide trading ranges—321.5 points for Nifty and 858.85 points for Bank Nifty—point to heightened volatility. This could be attributed to uncertainty surrounding global trade developments and domestic earnings reports.
- Strong Bearish Trend: Both indices closed near their daily lows, reinforcing the strength of the bearish trend. This suggests that selling pressure dominated the session, with limited buying interest at higher levels.
- Sectoral Influence: The bearish close may have been driven by underperformance in key sectors such as IT and financials, which are significant components of both indices. Specific stock-level data would be needed to confirm this, but the overall market sentiment leaned negative.
- Global Cues Impact: Despite positive signals from global markets, such as mixed to bullish European markets and bullish Dow futures, the Indian market did not follow suit. Additionally, a drop in crude oil prices from $70 to $69.37 and a stronger Indian rupee (from 87.66 to 87.58 against the US dollar) provided some positive macroeconomic context, but these were overshadowed by domestic factors.
These observations set the stage for our market analysis for tomorrow, highlighting the need for traders to remain vigilant.
Support and Resistance Levels
Key support and resistance levels are critical for identifying potential price movements on August 1, 2025. The following table outlines these levels for both indices:
These levels serve as pivotal points for traders to monitor, as they indicate where buying or selling pressure may intensify. For Nifty, the 24,650 support level is particularly crucial, as it aligns with recent lows, while 24,960 acts as an immediate resistance barrier. For Bank Nifty, 55,550 is a key support to watch, with 56,400 posing a significant resistance.
Nifty 50
- Support 1 (S1): 24,650
- Support 2 (S2): 24,580
- Resistance 1 (R1): 24,960
- Resistance 2 (R2): 25,104
Bank Nifty
- Support 1 (S1): 55,550
- Support 2 (S2): 55,100
- Resistance 1 (R1): 56,400
- Resistance 2 (R2): 56,800
Nifty Predictions
The Nifty 50's price action over the past five trading sessions suggests a consolidation phase, with the index oscillating between 24,500 and 25,000. The candlestick patterns observed include a mix of doji and small-bodied candles, indicating indecision in the market. For August 1, 2025, my analysis identifies a no-trading zone between 24,730 and 24,900, where the market may lack clear direction.
Intraday Pattern Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, the Nifty has been forming lower highs and higher lows, creating a contracting range. This pattern often precedes a significant breakout or breakdown. Traders should focus on the following scenarios based on 15-minute candle closes:
- Bullish Breakout: If the Nifty closes above 24,900, it could signal a bullish breakout, targeting:
- 1st Target: 24,960
- 2nd Target: 25,104
- 3rd Target: 25,185
- Bearish Breakdown: A close below 24,730 may trigger a bearish move, with targets at:
- 1st Target: 24,650
- 2nd Target: 24,580
- 3rd Target: 24,480
- False Breakout Scenarios:
- If the Nifty crosses 24,900 but closes below it, it could retest today’s low of 24,835, followed by 24,750.
- If it dips below 24,730 but closes above it, it might target 24,830 and 24,900.
Trading Strategy
To minimize risk, traders should avoid initiating bullish trades on bearish candles or bearish trades on bullish candles. Monitoring the 15-minute chart for confirmation of directional moves is essential. The bearish close on July 31 suggests that downside risks may persist, but buying interest could emerge near support levels.
[Insert Nifty 15m Candlestick Chart Here]
Bank Nifty Predictions
The Bank Nifty index has also shown signs of consolidation over the past five days, with support around 55,500 and resistance near 56,500. The banking sector, a significant driver of the Indian stock market, has been influenced by mixed earnings reports and global trade uncertainties.
Structure Analysis
The key support and resistance levels for Bank Nifty are critical for predicting price movements:
- Bullish Breakout: A 15-minute close above 56,400 could propel the index towards 56,800, indicating renewed bullish momentum.
- Bearish Breakdown: A close below 55,550 might lead to a test of 55,100, reflecting continued selling pressure.
Past 5-Day Behavior
Over the past five days, Bank Nifty has exhibited volatility, with intraday swings reflecting uncertainty in the banking sector. The bearish close on July 31 suggests that sellers are currently in control, but the proximity to key support levels indicates potential for a reversal if buying interest emerges.
Trading Strategy
Similar to Nifty, traders should focus on 15-minute candle closes to confirm directional moves. A cautious approach is warranted, given the bearish sentiment, but opportunities may arise near support levels for dip-buying strategies.
[Insert Bank Nifty 5-day Range Graph Here]
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction
Looking ahead to August 1, 2025, several scenarios could unfold based on technical levels and global cues:
- Range-Bound Movement: If the Nifty remains within the 24,730 to 24,900 range, it may continue to trade sideways, with limited directional clarity.
- Bullish Breakout: A close above 24,900 could initiate a rally towards 25,000 and beyond, supported by positive global cues such as bullish Dow futures.
- Bearish Breakdown: A close below 24,730 might lead to further declines, testing supports at 24,650 and 24,580.
For Bank Nifty, similar scenarios apply, with a focus on the 56,400 resistance and 55,550 support levels. Volatility is expected to be moderate to high, given the recent wide trading ranges and global uncertainties surrounding trade policies.
The drop in crude oil prices and the strengthening rupee are positive for the Indian economy, potentially supporting market sentiment. However, the bearish close on July 31 suggests that traders should remain cautious, particularly in the early trading session.
Final Verdict
Based on the technical analysis and global cues, the Indian stock market is likely to test lower support levels early on August 1, 2025. However, buying interest may emerge around these levels, potentially stabilizing the market. A breakout above key resistance levels could trigger a short-term rally, particularly if global markets remain supportive.
Our previous market predictions have been accurate, reinforcing the reliability of this analysis. However, given the recent volatility and mixed global signals, we assign a confidence score of 70% to this market prediction.
Risk Management Playbook – How to Trade 1st Aug Safely
(Use this as a ready-reckoner before you punch in a single order.)
Position-Sizing Matrix
| Account Equity (₹) | Max Risk per Trade | Max Open Risk (All Trades) | Position Size Formula* |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 1 Lakh | 1 % | 3 % | (Risk ÷ Stop-loss points) × Lot Size |
| 1 – 5 Lakh | 1 – 1.5 % | 4 % | Same as above |
| > 5 Lakh | 1.5 – 2 % | 5 % | Same as above |
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Disclaimer
All views expressed are personal and for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before trading.