Technical Analysis for 28 July 25 | Monday's Market Prediction
The Indian Stock Market wrapped up Friday’s session on a distinctly bearish note, capping a week that saw bulls repeatedly rebuffed at higher levels. Nifty slipped 225 points from its previous close of 25,062.10 to finish at 24,837. Intraday, the index oscillated in a 229-point range (24,806.35 – 25,035.00), opening almost flat at 25,010.35 before succumbing to relentless selling pressure.
Bank Nifty mirrored the gloom, opening at the day’s high of 57,170.7 and sliding as much as 731 points to a low of 56,439.4, before closing at 56,528.9—down 537 points from the previous close of 57,066.05. A combination of weak global cues, rising crude, and institutional profit-booking at psychological resistance ensured that both headline indices ended deep in the red and well below their respective 20-day EMAs.
Global Cues
• Crude Oil: Brent futures inched up from $66.10 to $66.35, adding to inflationary worries and keeping energy-import-sensitive sectors under pressure.
• USD–INR: The rupee depreciated 18 paisa (86.404 → 86.586), reinforcing FII outflow concerns.
• European Markets: DAX and CAC closed flat to mildly bearish; FTSE slipped 0.4 % on energy & banking drag.
• Dow Futures: At the time of writing, Dow e-minis were down 40 points, indicating a cautious-to-negative start for Monday’s U.S. session.
Key Observations of Market Closing
• Both indices closed lower than the previous day for the third time in four sessions.
• Heavy sell-side volumes were recorded between 14:00 and 15:00 hrs, dragging Nifty below the critical 24,900 mark.
• The inability to sustain above the 25,000 psychological level for the second consecutive session underscores underlying weakness.
• Post-opening sharp decline (first 30-minute bar registered a 100-point drop in Nifty) suggests overnight global pressure and early institutional profit booking.
Support and Resistance Levels Nifty
Support: 24,830 | 24,750 | 24,645 | 24,550
Resistance: 24,916 | 25,000 | 25,110 | 25,185
Bank Nifty
Support: 56,400 | 56,150 | 55,980
Resistance: 56,700 | 56,900 | 57,150
Nifty Predictions
No-Trade Zone: 24,806 – 24,916
Traders are advised to wait for a decisive 15-minute candle close outside this band before committing capital.
Bullish Setup (only on bullish candle close above level)
• Trigger: 15-min candle closes above 24,916
• Target 1: 25,000
• Target 2: 25,110
• Target 3: 25,185
Stop-loss: 24,880 (swing low of confirming candle)
Bearish Setup (only on bearish candle close below level)
• Trigger: 15-min candle closes below 24,806
• Target 1: 24,737
• Target 2: 24,645
• Target 3: 24,550
Stop-loss: 24,850 (swing high of confirming candle)
Sideways Setup
• If price dips below 24,806 but the 15-min candle closes above it, look for a bounce toward 24,900–24,980.
• Conversely, if price spikes above 24,916 but the 15-min candle closes below it, expect a slide to 24,830 (today’s low) and then 24,750.
Golden Rule: No bullish trades in a bearish engulfing candle and no bearish trades in a bullish engulfing candle.
Bank Nifty Predictions
Bank Nifty rejected the 57,170.7 high and closed 640 points off the intraday peak. PSU banks—particularly PNB and Canara—dragged the index lower amid news of additional provisioning norms. Unless the index reclaims 56,750 decisively, expect further drift.
Upside Potential (on close above 56,750)
• Target 1: 56,900
• Target 2: 57,150
Downside Potential (on close below 56,350)
• Target 1: 56,100
• Target 2: 55,850
Intraday scalpers can track the 56,500–56,700 range; a volume-backed breakout/breakdown should be respected with 1:2 risk-reward.
Monday’s Market Prediction
Market Prediction for Monday hinges on three variables:
- Global sentiment at SGX Nifty open.
- Crude trajectory—sustained move above $66.50 could trigger additional FII selling in oil-marketing companies.
- INR stability—fresh lows versus the USD may accelerate outflows.
Nifty predictions for 28 July suggest that if Asian markets trade weak and Dow futures remain subdued, a gap-down toward 24,750 is likely. Initial volatility will be high; hence, avoid naked option buys in the first 30 minutes. A measured approach is to wait for a 15-minute candle close beyond the highlighted trigger levels.
Indian Stock Market Outlook: Expect a cautious open with negative breadth. Banking and IT may underperform, while selective FMCG and pharma names could provide relative outperformance on defensive buying.
Risk-Management Playbook – How to Trade 28 July Safely
(Use this as a ready-reckoner before you punch in a single order.)
Position-Sizing Matrix
| Account Equity (₹) | Max Risk per Trade | Max Open Risk (All Trades) | Position Size Formula* |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 1 Lakh | 1 % | 3 % | (Risk ÷ Stop-loss points) × Lot Size |
| 1 – 5 Lakh | 1 – 1.5 % | 4 % | Same as above |
| > 5 Lakh | 1.5 – 2 % | 5 % | Same as above |
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Final Verdict
Our previous analysis worked absolutely accurate—key resistance of 25,110 once again acted as a ceiling and a sharp fall was observed after rejection. For Monday, 28 July, traders should prioritize short trades unless a reversal signal (bullish engulfing above 24,916 with 1.5× average volume) is confirmed. Stay nimble, honor stop-losses, and let the 15-minute candle be your guiding light.
📌 Disclaimer
All content published by Option Matrix India is strictly for educational purposes. Trading and investing in the Indian Stock Market carry substantial risk. Please consult your financial advisor or SEBI-registered investment professional before making any trading or investment decisions.