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Technical Analysis for 30 June 25

Nifty Outlook Based on Support & resistance level
27 June 2025 by
Pranjal Kalita
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Technical Analysis for 30 June 25 : 

Base​d On Support & Resistance Level 

Today's session witnessed range-bound movement in the Indian stock market with Nifty oscillating between 25,523.55 and 25,654.20 before closing at 25,637.80 (-0.08%). Bank Nifty outperformed, closing 0.37% higher at 57,443.90.

Key Observations of Market Closing

  • Nifty formed a Doji candle on daily chart indicating indecision
  • Declining volumes (-12% vs 30-day average) suggest lack of conviction
  • Maximum Call OI at 25,700 strike; Put OI at 25,500
  • VIX cooled by 3.2% to 14.85, suggesting reduced fear

Global Cues Impacting Indian Markets

The derivative market is currently influenced by:

  • Crude Oil at $65.7/barrel: 2-week low supporting Indian macros
  • USD/INR at 85.5: RBI likely intervened at 85.6 levels
  • European Markets: DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.5%
  • US Futures: Dow Jones flat, Nasdaq +0.2%

Global Cues & Key Levels (27th June 2025)

Global Market Snapshot

  • Crude Oil: $65.7/barrel
  • USD/INR: 85.5
  • European Markets: Bullish
  • Dow Futures: Flat to Bullish

Nifty Technical Analysis

  • No-Trade Zone: 25,570 - 25,642
  • Today's Close: 25,637.8
  • Market Range: 25,523.55 (Low) - 25,654.2 (High)
  • Opening: 25,576.65 | Volume: 563.9M

Bullish Scenario (If 15m candle closes above 25,642):

  1. 1st Target: 25,737
  2. 2nd Target: 25,834

Bearish Scenario (If 15m candle closes below 25,570):

  1. 1st Target: 25,477
  2. 2nd Target: 25,426

Golden Rule: No bullish trades in bearish candles, no bearish trades in bullish candles.

Bank Nifty Update

  • Range: 56,993.85 - 57,475.4
  • Opening: 57,234.7 | Closing: 57,443.9
  • Volume: 237.9M

Monday Market Prediction (30 June 2025)

Bullish Case (If Nifty sustains above 25,642)

A 15-minute candle close above 25,642 could trigger:

  1. First Target: 25,737 (Previous swing high)
  2. Second Target: 25,834 (78.6% Fibonacci extension)
    Recommended Strategy: Buy on dips with 25,600 as stoploss

Bearish Case (If Nifty breaks 25,570)

Break below 25,570 may lead to:

  1. First Target: 25,477 (200-DEMA)
  2. Second Target: 25,426 (Weekly low)
    Recommended Strategy: Sell rallies with 25,620 as stoploss

Trade Recommendations

For Conservative Traders:

  • Wait for clear breakout/breakdown beyond 25,570-25,642 zone
  • Bank Nifty shows stronger bias - prefer long positions above 57,500

For Aggressive Traders:

  • 25,650-25,670 range for partial profits if long
  • Fresh shorts only below 25,550 with strict stoploss

Options Strategy: Iron Condor (Sell 25,500 Put & 25,800 Call)

Final Verdict

The Indian stock market is at a crucial juncture. While global cues are mildly positive, domestic price action shows exhaustion. Traders should:

  • Remain cautious in the 25,570-25,642 no-trade zone
  • Watch crude oil and USD/INR for directional cues
  • Prefer stock-specific trades over index positions

Our market analysis suggests tomorrow's trend will likely be decided in the first 90 minutes of trade.

Disclaimer

This stock market prediction is for educational purposes only. Option Matrix India is not responsible for any trading decisions made based on this analysis. Securities trading involves risk; consult your financial advisor before investing.

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