Technical Analysis for 25 July 2025
Welcome to Option Matrix India’s in-depth technical analysis for the Indian stock market, focusing on the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices for July 25, 2025. This article provides a detailed breakdown of today’s market movements, key observations, support and resistance levels, and predictions for tomorrow’s trading session. Our analysis is designed to help traders make informed decisions, leveraging precise technical indicators and our proven trading strategies.
Today’s Price Movement
On July 24, 2025, the Nifty index opened at 25,243.3, a marginal increase from the previous close of 25,219.9. However, the index struggled to maintain these levels, succumbing to selling pressure that drove it to a low of 25,018.7. A partial recovery followed, with the Nifty closing at 25,062.10, down 157.8 points or 0.63%. The daily candlestick formed a bearish pattern characterized by a long lower wick, suggesting that buyers stepped in at lower levels to prevent further declines, though the overall sentiment remained bearish.
Similarly, the Bank Nifty index opened at its daily high of 57,316.6 but faced immediate selling, dropping to a low of 56,850.9. It recovered to close at 57,066.05, down 144.4 points or 0.25%, indicating a relatively milder decline compared to Nifty.
Key Observations of Market Closing
Several global and domestic factors influenced today’s market performance:
- Crude Oil Prices: Rising from $64.93 to $66.1 per barrel, higher crude oil prices could pressure India’s economy, a net oil importer, potentially increasing inflation and trade deficits.
- Rupee Stability: The rupee remained stable at 86.404 against the dollar, a neutral factor that supports foreign investment inflows.
- Global Markets: European markets exhibited bullish sentiment, which could have provided some positive cues. However, mixed signals from Dow futures indicated uncertainty in the U.S. markets, contributing to cautious trading.
- FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the cash market, index futures, and stock futures, adding to the bearish pressure on the Indian markets.
Despite some positive global cues, domestic factors such as profit booking likely contributed to the bearish close. The India VIX, hovering around 10–11, suggests low volatility, which could precede a significant market move.
Technical Indicators Analysis
To provide a comprehensive view, let’s examine key technical indicators for Nifty:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI stands at approximately 42.63–46.98, below the neutral level of 50, indicating bearish momentum. While not yet in oversold territory (below 30), this suggests caution for short-term traders.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD shows a negative value of -3.92, reinforcing the bearish outlook. However, some sources indicate a positive MACD level, highlighting the importance of cross-verifying indicators across timeframes.
- Moving Averages: Most short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) are above the current price, signaling sell conditions. However, longer-term moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day) are below the price, suggesting that the broader uptrend may still be intact.
- Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R: The Stochastic Oscillator at 99.005 and Williams %R at -1.256 indicate overbought conditions, but in a bearish context, these signals require careful interpretation.
These indicators collectively point to a short-term bearish bias, though the long-term trend may remain positive, as noted by market analysts who highlight support from the 50 EMA on weekly charts.
Daily Candle Pattern
Today’s Nifty candlestick is a bearish candle with a small upper wick and a long lower wick, resembling a hammer pattern. A hammer typically signals a potential reversal when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend, as buyers defend lower levels. However, without confirmation of the preceding trend, it’s prudent to treat this as a sign of consolidation rather than a definitive reversal. For Bank Nifty, the candle also shows a bearish body with no upper wick and a moderate lower wick, indicating similar buyer support at lower levels.
Support and Resistance Levels
Using pivot point calculations and today’s price action, we’ve identified the following key levels:
Trading Plan for Tomorrow
Key Levels:
Nifty
- Pivot Point (PP): 25,109.02
- Support 1 (S1): 24,971.79
- Support 2 (S2): 24,881.47
- Resistance 1 (R1): 25,199.34
- Resistance 2 (R2): 25,336.57
Bank Nifty
- Pivot Point (PP): 57,077.85
- Support 1 (S1): 56,839.10
- Support 2 (S2): 56,612.15
- Resistance 1 (R1): 57,304.80
- Resistance 2 (R2): 57,543.55
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: If price holds above PP, look for longs toward R1/R2.
- Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below PP, watch for downside toward S1/S2.
- Bank Nifty may see higher volatility—trade with strict SL.
Note: Monitor price action at key levels for confirmation. Adjust SL as needed.
For Nifty, today’s low of 25,018.7 aligns closely with our identified support at 25,018, reinforcing its significance. The resistance at 25,103, as per our trading strategy, is near the pivot point, making it a critical level to watch. For Bank Nifty, the low of 56,850.9 serves as immediate support, with resistance at 57,304.8.
Nifty Predictions
Our technical analysis for Nifty on July 25, 2025, centers on the following strategy:
- No-Trading Zone: The range between 25,018 and 25,103 is a no-trading zone. Traders should avoid initiating positions within this range to minimize risk.
- Bullish Scenario: If a 15-minute candle closes above 25,103, it could signal a bullish breakout, targeting 25,150 (first target), 25,255 (second target), and 25,330 (third target). These levels align with our pivot point resistance levels.
- Bearish Scenario: A 15-minute candle close below 25,018 could indicate further downside, with targets at 24,970 (close to S1) and 24,880 (close to S2).
- False Breakouts: If Nifty crosses 25,103 but closes below it on a 15-minute candle, it may target today’s low of 25,018.7 and then 25,000. Conversely, if it crosses below 25,018 but closes above, it could aim for 25,050 and then 25,103.
This strategy, combined with pivot point analysis, provides a robust framework for traders. Our previous analyses have proven accurate, reinforcing the reliability of these levels.
Bank Nifty Predictions
For Bank Nifty, the pivot point is at 57,077.85. A sustained move above this level could target 57,304.8 and 57,543.55. On the downside, support lies at 56,839.1 and 56,612.15. Given Bank Nifty’s tendency to follow Nifty’s trend, traders should monitor Nifty’s movement for directional cues. The milder decline in Bank Nifty today suggests relative strength in the banking sector, which could influence tomorrow’s performance.
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction
The market may open flat or slightly positive on July 25, 2025, due to the partial recovery from today’s lows and mixed global cues. However, the bearish candle and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach. The low India VIX (10–11) indicates potential for increased volatility, so traders should be prepared for sudden moves. Monitoring the 15-minute candle closes around the no-trading zone will be crucial for identifying the market’s direction.
Sector and Volume Insights
While specific sector performance data is unavailable, defensive sectors like FMCG, Pharma, and IT typically outperform in bearish markets, while cyclical sectors like Banking and Auto may lag. Bank Nifty’s smaller decline suggests resilience in banking stocks. Volume analysis would confirm the strength of today’s move, but without data, we assume average volume. High volume on declines would indicate strong selling pressure, while low volume suggests a lack of buying interest.
Expert Opinions
Market analysts on platforms like X have noted that Nifty is holding above key support at 25,000, with further support at 24,800–24,900. Resistance levels are identified at 25,200–25,340, aligning with our pivot point calculations. The consensus suggests a consolidation phase, with potential for a breakout if Nifty sustains above key resistance levels.
Final Verdict
The Indian stock market is in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish bias as of July 24, 2025. Traders should exercise caution, focusing on the identified support and resistance levels and adhering to our 15-minute candle strategy. Our previous analyses have consistently provided accurate predictions, and we remain committed to delivering reliable insights for our readers at Option Matrix India.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.