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Market Analysis for 12th June 25

Nifty at 25141 - Will the Bull Run Continue Tomorrow?

Market Analysis for 12th June 25: Nifty at 25141 - Will the Bull Run Continue Tomorrow?

Market Snapshot:

Today, the Nifty closed at a record high of 25,141, driven by mixed institutional activity. Cash market data reveals DIIs bought ₹1,584.87 crore while FIIs sold ₹446.31 crore, signaling a tug-of-war. Derivatives data (see table below) adds critical context for tomorrow’s trend.

Derivatives Positioning: Key Insights

  1. FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors):
    • Net Long Derivatives (Total Long: 246,569 vs. Short: 5,632).
    • Heavy Index Call Longs (125,461 contracts) and Stock Call Longs (16,516).
    • Sold cash shares but hold aggressive bullish derivatives bets, suggesting hedging or expectation of upside.
  2. DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors):
    • Net Long Derivatives (Total Long: 5,556 vs. Short: 1,450).
    • Bought cash equities (₹1,585 crore) and hold modest long derivatives.
    • Low options activity but bullish futures stance (Future Stock Longs: 7,186).
  3. Retail (Client Category):
    • Net Short Derivatives (Total Short: 622,327 vs. Long: 314,483).
    • Dominant Index Put Longs (81,246 contracts) for hedging.
    • Heavy Index Call Shorts (273,734) – betting against rallies.
  4. Proprietary Traders (Pro):
    • Net Long Derivatives (306,519 vs. 243,719 Short).
    • Built Index Call Longs (145,054) and Stock Put Longs (37,886), indicating bullish sentiment.

Option Chain Analysis (NSE India): Critical Levels

  • Max Pain: 25,000 (supports base at 25,100).
  • Resistance: 25,500 (Call OI concentration).
  • Support: 25,000 (Put OI concentration).
  • Notable Activity:
    • 25,200/25,300 Calls added fresh OI (resistance zones).
    • 25,000/25,100 Puts see high OI (strong support).

Tomorrow’s Prediction: Cautiously Bullish

  • Bullish Triggers:
    • FIIs’ massive long derivatives exposure.
    • DIIs’ cash buying + Pro traders’ bullish bets.
    • Retail’s net short position (contrarian indicator).
  • Bearish Risks:
    • FIIs’ cash selling may continue.
    • Profit-booking at record highs (25,141).
    • Global volatility (if US inflation data surprises).

Trade Strategy:

  • Upside Target: 25,300–25,500 if Nifty holds 25,100.
  • Downside Hedge: 25,000 (strong Put support).
  • Sectors to Watch: Banking (FII long bias), IT (DII interest).

Verdict:

Nifty likely tests 25,300 tomorrow unless FII cash selling intensifies. Hold longs with 25,000 as stop-loss. Watch FII-DII cash flow divergence for reversals.

Data Sources: NSE Option Chain, Market Participant Data (attached).

Disclaimer: Derivatives data reflects positions, not directional certainty. Monitor pre-market cues.