Market Prediction 18th June 25:
Will Nifty Soar Past 25,000 or Face a Sharp Correction?
By Option Matrix India
Today, the Nifty closed at 24,853.40, showing resilience despite mixed cues from global markets. The cash market saw DIIs as net buyers (₹8,207.19 Cr) & FIIs also buy net ₹1,482.77 Cr, Both DII and FII engage in buying within the cash market.t.
Key Takeaways for Tomorrow’s Trading Session
✅ Nifty closes at 24,853.40 – Bulls and Bears in a fierce tug-of-war!
✅ DIIs go all-in with ₹8,207 Cr buying – Strong domestic confidence!
✅ FIIs cautiously buy ₹1,482 Cr in cash but remain net short in derivatives – Are they hedging for a big move?
✅ Option Chain reveals a massive battle at 25,000 – Highest Call OI vs Strong Put Writing at 24,800!
✅ Global markets shaky – US Fed uncertainty and China’s slowdown add volatility.
Critical Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 25,000 (Wall of Calls) → 25,200 (Next hurdle)
- Support: 24,800 (Strong Put Base) → 24,600 (If broken, panic selling possible)
Deep Dive: What Do FIIs, DIIs & Retail Traders Say?
1. Cash Market – DIIs Bet Big, FIIs Play Safe
- DIIs (Domestic Institutions) pumped ₹8,207 Cr – Their biggest buy in weeks!
- FIIs (Foreign Investors) bought only ₹1,482 Cr – Far less aggressive than DIIs.
- Retail traders active, but are they trapped? FIIs’ derivative stance suggests caution.
2. Derivatives Data – Who’s Really Controlling the Market?
| Player | Index Futures (Net) | Index Calls Short (Bearish) | Index Puts Short (Bullish Hedge) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIIs | Net Short (4,828) | 65,107 (Bearish) | 1,18,097 (Hedging) |
| Pros | Net Long (6,441) | 55,431 | 3,59,066 (Big Put Shorts!) |
| Retail | Net Short (4,307) | 5,82,285 (Extreme Bearish Bias) | 7,63,221 |
🔹 FIIs are short in futures but heavily shorting puts → Are they expecting a bounce?
🔹 Pro traders (smart money) are net long – A strong bullish signal!
🔹 Retail traders excessively short – Often a contrarian indicator (bullish for markets).
3. Option Chain – The Real War at 25,000!
Highest Call OI at 25,000 (72,215 contracts) → A major resistance.
Strongest Put Base at 24,800 (93,454 contracts) → Immediate support.
PCR at 1.76 (Bullish Bias) – But too much put writing can lead to a sharp reversal if support breaks.
What If 25,000 is Taken Out?
- If Nifty breaks 25,000, expect a short-covering rally towards 25,200-25,500.
- Bank Nifty must hold 54,500 for the rally to sustain.
What If 24,800 Breaks?
- A close below 24,800 could trigger panic selling towards 24,600-24,400.
- Watch FIIs’ derivative activity – If they increase shorts, correction risk rises.
Trading Strategy for 18th June 25
For Bulls (Breakout Play)
- Buy above 24,950 → Target 25,200 (Stop Loss: 24,800).
- Bank Nifty must cross 55,000 for a strong uptrend.
For Bears (Breakdown Play)
- Sell below 24,800 → Target 24,600 (Stop Loss: 24,900).
- If FIIs increase shorts, expect a deeper correction.
Best Neutral Strategy (Range-Bound Trade)
- Sell 25,000 Call & Buy 24,800 Put → Straddle for volatility.
Final Verdict: Who Will Win – Bulls or Bears?
- DIIs + Pro Traders = Bullish
- FIIs + Retail = Cautious/Bearish
- Option Chain = Bullish (But Overbought Risk)
Expect a fierce battle at 25,000!
- Breakout above = Rally to 25,200+
- Rejection at 25,000 = Fall to 24,600
Trade smart, use strict stop losses, and track FII activity closely!