Nifty 50 Intraday Prediction 11th Aug 2025
Based on a synthesis of technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis as of August 11, 2025:
- Technical Analysis: Nifty closed at 24,363.30 on Friday after a 0.95% drop, forming a bearish candle and marking six consecutive weeks of losses. It shows weakness below the 21 EMA on weekly charts, with immediate support at 24,000-24,200 and resistance at 24,500-24,600. Intraday indicators suggest oversold conditions (RSI near 40), but momentum favors downside unless a rebound breaks 24,480. Implied volatility (India VIX at 12.03) is low but could spike on news. Option Greeks for near-ATM strikes (e.g., delta ~0.5 for ATM calls/puts, theta decay minimal intraday at ~₹5-10/day) indicate limited time decay for monthly expiry but high gamma sensitivity near supports.
- Fundamental Analysis: Macro cues include US tariff concerns (Trump-related developments) weighing on sentiment, muted Q1 earnings, and global trade tensions. However, FIIs turned net buyers on August 8 (₹1,850 crore) after a 14-day selling streak, with DIIs adding ₹7,437 crore—signaling potential stabilization. Sectoral news shows weakness in financials and infra, but positive flows in autos and pharma. Global markets (Asian shares up, GIFT Nifty +0.05% at 24,430) suggest a mildly positive open, but EM caution persists.
- Real-Time News Sentiment: Headlines emphasize cautious trading amid US-India tariff risks and foreign selling pressure, but analysts note scope for rebound from oversold levels. RBI commentary remains neutral, with no major geopolitical escalations today. X sentiment (from recent posts) is predominantly cautious/bearish, highlighting selling pressure, oversold zones, and global concerns, though some see stock-specific opportunities.
Probability Estimates (Intraday from Current Level of 24,360):
- Upside (net positive move >0.5%): 40% – Emphasizing oversold rebound potential, FII/DII buying, and positive global cues.
- Downside (net negative move >0.5%): 50% – Prioritizing bearish technical patterns, six-week downtrend, and tariff/news risks.
- Volatile Market (big up/down swings >1% in either direction): 10% – Low VIX suggests range-bound, but sudden news could trigger.
Probabilities for Day-End Close (vs. 24,360):
- Higher: 40% (assumes rebound to 24,500+ on positive flows).
- Lower: 50% (assumes continuation to 24,000 support on weakness).
- Roughly Flat (±0.5% or ~±120 points): 10% (assumes consolidation in oversold zone). Assumptions: High weight on technical weakness and tariff news; moderate weight on FII reversal and global positivity. No major RBI/geopolitical shocks assumed; high-risk approach ignores minor theta decay.
Option Buying Strategy Recommendations (Near-ATM, August 28 Expiry)
Focusing on intraday trades (9:30 AM–3:00 PM) with a high-risk approach (buying outright options for leverage). Near-ATM strikes around 24,350/24,400 (based on current spot/futures). Estimated premiums derived from typical Black-Scholes approximations (IV ~12%, 17 days to expiry): 24,350 CE ~₹280, 24,350 PE ~₹220 (slight put premium skew due to bearish bias).
- Buying Call Options Only (Near-ATM, e.g., 24,350 CE):
- Expected Return: ~25% (if upside materializes; e.g., 1% index rise could yield 40-50% on call via delta ~0.5 and gamma boost).
- Major Risks: Sudden volatility spikes (vega negative if IV drops), unexpected downside news (e.g., tariff escalation), or flat close leading to time decay losses (~10-15% premium erosion intraday).
- Buying Put Options Only (Near-ATM, e.g., 24,350 PE):
- Expected Return: ~35% (higher due to downside probability; e.g., 1% index fall could yield 50-60% on put, amplified by potential IV rise).
- Major Risks: Rebound on FII flows or positive global cues causing rapid premium decay, or low volatility leading to vega drag if market stabilizes.
Recommendation: Buy Put Options Only yields higher expected profit given 50% downside probability and bearish technical/fundamental bias. Avoid both (straddle) as volatility probability is low.
Actionable Summary
- Strategy to Execute Today (August 11, 2025): Buy puts only (high-risk intraday hold).
- Recommended Strike(s): 24,350 PE (near-ATM for optimal delta/gamma).
- Details: Premium ~₹220; Probability of Profit ~50% (downside scenario); Target exit on 1%+ index drop for 35-50% return, stop-loss if index rises 0.5% (risk ~20-30% loss).
Disclaimer: This is not a buy or sell recommendation; it is only for educational purposes.