Technical Analysis for 2 Mar 2026
Nifty Predictions, Bank Nifty Predictions & Sensex Predictions
YouTube analysis from Jassi Tech
Friday’s session (27 February 2026) saw a sharp risk-off move in the Indian Stock Market, with Nifty 50 slipping about 1.25% to close near 25,178 while the Sensex lost over 960 points to finish around 81,287. Our Expert highlighted that Nifty, Sensex and even Midcap indices have now broken below the 200‑day exponential moving average (200‑DEMA), with Nifty and Bank Nifty printing four consecutive bearish candles – a classic sign of persistent selling pressure in Technical Analysis.
Broad-based weakness in banking, autos, financials and metals, coupled with a decisive break of important moving averages, has turned the short-term Market Prediction bias to “sell on bounce” rather than “buy on dips.” Derivative data shows relatively subdued but rising volatility and a Put–Call Ratio near neutral, suggesting cautious positioning rather than aggressive long risk-taking.
Global Market & Sentiment Overview
US equities ended lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down about 0.4%, the Dow Jones slipping around 1.1% and the Nasdaq falling roughly 0.9%, as a hotter inflation update and worries around AI-related losers weighed on sentiment. This weak US close adds to the cautious global backdrop already troubling equity bulls in the Indian Stock Market.
Asian markets traded mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing modestly higher while the Hang Seng and some other regional indices fluctuated amid global tech weakness and tariff/geopolitical concerns. Such a patchy risk tone across Asia reinforces the Technical Analysis view that Indian indices are unlikely to stage a strong one-way reversal without meaningful global support.
Crude oil has firmed up notably, with Brent crude around the mid‑70 USD per barrel mark and up over 7–8% in the past month, driven partly by Middle East tensions and supply worries – a potential medium-term headwind for an import-dependent economy like India. The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near 97.6 and was marginally down on Friday, but remains stronger over the past month, reflecting a still-supportive backdrop for the dollar.
Nifty Technical Analysis
Daily candle pattern & structure
On Friday, Nifty 50 opened around 25,459, briefly tested a high near 25,476 and then sold off through the session to close at approximately 25,178, forming a long bearish candle on the daily chart.
The analyst points out that Nifty is now trading below the 9‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day exponential moving averages, with the moving averages stacked in a bearish order (50‑day above 100‑day, above 20‑day, above 9‑day), underlining the depth of the current downtrend. In classical Technical Analysis, a close below the 200‑day moving average generally indicates a shift into a long-term bearish or corrective phase and often turns the 200‑DMA into a powerful resistance zone.
Support & resistance levels for Nifty
From post-market institutional reports, the following Nifty Technical Analysis levels stand out:
- Immediate support zone:
- 25,100 (marked as immediate support in Liquide’s post-market note).
- 25,000–24,900 as a key psychological and trendline support band; a decisive break here could open a deeper correction towards prior swing lows.
- Near-term resistance zone:
- 25,270 – first intraday resistance highlighted in the Liquide report.
- 25,350–25,500, which several brokers and the Our weekly view mark as an important resistance band and potential supply zone.
- Around 25,550–25,600, where the 50‑day moving average and clustered call writing have been observed, creating a strong Technical Analysis ceiling.
Our analysis also notes that on the weekly chart, Nifty has broken both the 9‑week and 20‑week EMAs, and the analyst now expects that the index can potentially drift closer to the 50‑week moving average zone, arguing for caution on aggressive long positions. When a market trades below its 200‑DMA and key weekly averages simultaneously, Technical Analysis convention is to treat rallies as opportunities to lighten longs or initiate short positions rather than chase upside.
OI, PCR & volatility cues (Nifty)
Swastika Investmart’s outlook around this zone shows that Nifty options have heavy Call Open Interest at 26,000 and strong Put Open Interest at 24,000, with the maximum pain level near 25,500. The same report pegs the Nifty Put–Call Ratio at about 0.88, signalling a broadly balanced but slightly cautious sentiment – not panic, but certainly not aggressive bullishness.
Other derivative commentaries indicate that put writing has gradually shifted to lower strikes while call writers remain active closer to 25,600–25,800, reinforcing a sell-on-rise structure in the short term. India VIX has ticked up from its recent lows into the 13–14 zone, signalling the return of volatility even though absolute levels are not yet extreme. Within Technical Analysis, such a mix of moderate VIX, weak price structure and call-heavy OI at overhead strikes typically favours range-bound to bearish Nifty Predictions for the very near term.
Tomorrow’s Nifty Predictions (2nd March 2026)
Given the four consecutive bearish candles, the break below the 200‑DMA and the “sell on bounce” commentary from our analysis, the base case Nifty Prediction for 2nd March remains cautiously bearish to sideways.
Key Technical Analysis triggers for tomorrow:
- Bullish short-covering scenario (less probable unless global cues improve):
- Sustained trade above 25,270 could trigger a short-covering push toward 25,350–25,400.
- A strong close above 25,500–25,550 would be the first real sign that bears are losing control, potentially extending toward 25,600.
- Bearish continuation scenario (base case):
- A break and sustained trade below 25,100 will likely invite fresh selling, exposing the 25,000–24,900 band.
- If 24,900 fails to hold, downside extensions toward prior swing supports can’t be ruled out in the coming sessions, though such moves may be accompanied by oversold bounces intraday.
From an Option Matrix India standpoint, Nifty Technical Analysis clearly favours sell-on-rise while it stays below 25,350–25,500 on closing basis.
Bank Nifty Technical Analysis
Price action & daily structure
Bank Nifty opened around 61,057, managed a marginal high near 61,086 and then slid to close at about 60,529, also printing a long bearish candle on Friday. Our Expert through the intraday structure, noting how levels like 61,000, 60,816 and 60,710 initially acted as support/resistance intraday before finally giving way in the last hour, pushing the index to a low around 60,438 and a weak close near 60,529.
On the daily chart, the analyst highlights a sequence of four consecutive bearish candles in Bank Nifty, similar to Nifty, and notes that the index has broken below both the 9‑day and 20‑day EMAs, signalling that earlier short-term support from banking has now begun to erode. Such “three/four black crows” formations are widely viewed in Technical Analysis as strong bearish reversal or continuation patterns when they appear after or during a topping phase.
Key support & resistance levels for Bank Nifty
From our Expert gives the following Bank Nifty Technical Analysis map:
- Immediate supports:
- 60,300: highlighted as near-term support in Liquide’s post-market summary.
- 60,000: widely watched psychological support and a key handle below which stronger downside acceleration is likely.
- Immediate resistances:
- 60,800: defined as immediate resistance by multiple analysts, roughly aligning with the breakdown zone and short-term moving averages.
- 61,400–61,500: a broader resistance belt where prior rallies have repeatedly stalled.
Our review adds that while Bank Nifty has slipped below 9‑ and 20‑DEMA on the daily chart, it still holds above its 9‑week EMA on the weekly timeframe, keeping banks relatively stronger than the benchmark from a higher‑time‑frame Technical Analysis perspective. This relative strength doesn’t negate the short-term weakness, but it does suggest that deep follow-through selling may get intermittent support from value buyers at lower levels.
Option data & momentum
Daily derivatives roundups point out that Bank Nifty still trades above several of its medium-term moving averages and recently defended its 10‑day EMA before this breakdown day, indicating that the index had been in a consolidation phase with a slightly positive bias until Friday’s candle. Support and resistance clusters around 60,700–60,800 and 61,400–61,500 respectively also map well to zones of heavier put and call open interest in popular strikes, even though the exact OI numbers vary brokerage to brokerage.
Tomorrow’s Bank Nifty Predictions (2nd March 2026)
For 2nd March, Bank Nifty Predictions lean moderately bearish but with scope for sharper intraday swings given the index’s historical volatility:
- Bullish scenario:
- If global markets stabilise and Bank Nifty reclaims 60,800 on a sustained basis, a short-covering move toward 61,200–61,500 is possible, especially if leading private and PSU banks show relative strength.
- Bearish scenario (base case):
- A failure to hold 60,300 on intraday bounces opens downside toward the 60,000 mark, where some bargain buying may emerge but not guaranteed to sustain.
- A decisive breach of 60,000, especially on a closing basis, would confirm a deeper distribution phase, aligning Bank Nifty with Nifty’s broader bearish Technical Analysis structure.
From a trading perspective, Option Matrix India would treat 60,800–61,000 as a supply zone for call writing or aggressive put buying with tight stops, and 60,000–60,300 as a reaction band where traders should avoid fresh aggressive shorts and instead manage existing positions carefully.
Sensex Predictions
Price action & weakness profile
The Sensex has been structurally weaker than Nifty for several sessions, a point heavily emphasized . On Friday, the index slumped roughly 961 points to close near 81,287, marking a loss of about 1.17% and extending a sequence of four consecutive red candles with lower lows on the daily timeframe.
Crucially, the analyst reiterates that Sensex has been trading below its 200‑DEMA for almost the entire week and remains below that long‑term moving average even after earlier attempts to stabilise. In mainstream Technical Analysis, a sustained stay below the 200‑DMA is considered a strong sign of a long-term downtrend or at least a structurally weak phase where rallies are frequently sold into.
Sensex support & resistance zones
Pre‑fall outlooks placed immediate supply around 82,500 (near the 20‑day EMA) and a broader resistance band near 82,800–83,000, while noting demand zones around 82,000–81,800. After Friday’s deep cut and close near 81,287, these earlier demand zones have been violated, and they are now more relevant as overhead resistance bands rather than support – a classic case of support turning into resistance once broken.
For 2nd March, the important Sensex Technical Analysis levels can be summarised as:
- Immediate resistance:
- 81,800–82,000 as the first band where intraday pullbacks may meet selling pressure.
- 82,500 as the next major resistance aligned with the falling 20‑day EMA and prior supply.
- Key supports:
- 81,000–81,100 as a short-term psychological floor, having been approached after Friday’s 960‑point slide.
- Below 81,000, prior analyst commentary points to the 81,600–81,600 region as a reference in earlier sessions; after the latest fall, the next reliable support will need to be discovered by fresh price action.
Overall, Sensex Technical Analysis remains the weakest of the three major indices, reinforcing a defensive stance in large-cap portfolios.
Market Analysis for Tomorrow (2nd March 2026)
Bullish setup – what bulls need
For a constructive Market Analysis for Tomorrow, bulls need several conditions to line up simultaneously:
- Global cues to stabilise:
- A pause or reversal of the recent weakness in US indices and some cooling in AI/inflation fears could reduce external pressure on Indian equities.
- Brent crude stabilising instead of extending its 8% monthly rally would help ease concerns about imported inflation.
- Key reclaim levels on indices:
- Nifty must reclaim and sustain above 25,270 first, then 25,350–25,500, to signal that the current down-leg is losing momentum.
- Bank Nifty needs a close back above 60,800 to open a move toward 61,400–61,500, validating the still‑stronger weekly setup in banks.
- Sensex would need to recover back above 81,800–82,000, and eventually 82,500, to even begin neutralising the ongoing bearish sequence.
If these reclaim levels are achieved on good breadth and volume, 2nd March could turn into a short‑covering day rather than a fresh breakdown session.
Bearish setup – continuation risk
The base case Market Prediction, however, remains skewed toward bearish continuation given the broken 200‑DMA, four‑candle bearish sequences, and weak sector breadth:
- Nifty breakdown levels:
- Sustained trading below 25,100 would likely accelerate selling toward 25,000–24,900.
- Below 24,900, prior budget‑week lows and Fibonacci supports may come into play over the next few sessions, though those specific numbers will depend on fresh price swings.
- Bank Nifty breakdown levels:
- A close below 60,300 puts 60,000 at risk as the next downside magnet.
- Sub‑60,000, option writers and institutional flows can drive fast, sentiment‑led moves, particularly if global banks remain weak.
- Sensex breakdown levels:
- Another failure to bounce from the 81,000–81,100 pocket would extend the lower‑lows pattern and could push the index deeper into uncharted territory below the 200‑DMA.
Derivative data backing this view includes a neutral‑to‑negative PCR near 0.88, call‑heavy open interest at higher Nifty strikes and a rising VIX – a typical combination during distribution phases where bounces get sold.
Option Matrix India’s View
Directional bias
Based on the current Technical Analysis across Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex, Option Matrix India’s directional bias for 2nd March 2026 is bearish to range-bound, with a clear sell-on-rise framework. The confluence of factors – price trading below the 200‑DMA on Nifty and Sensex, four consecutive bearish candles, and down‑sloping moving average structures – argues against aggressive long-only positions until key resistance zones are reclaimed.
Bank Nifty retains some weekly‑chart relative strength, but the recent break below 9‑ and 20‑day EMAs warns that even this pocket can correct further if Nifty and Sensex remain under pressure.
Risk management advice
- Reduce position sizes versus normal when trading indices in such a weak structure, as intraday volatility can spike quickly.
- Strictly define stop-loss levels beyond key Technical Analysis thresholds – for example, using Nifty levels like 25,100 (support) and 25,350–25,500 (resistance) as reference for intraday risk.
- Avoid averaging down directional trades; instead, consider booking partial profits on sharp intraday moves and re‑entering only near well‑defined support/resistance zones.
Ideal strategy bias (CE / PE)
Given the current Market Prediction framework:
- Nifty:
- Favour put buying or call writing on rallies into 25,270–25,350–25,500 zones, with tight, pre‑defined stops above the upper band.
- Aggressive long calls are better reserved for a confirmed close above 25,500–25,550, accompanied by strong breadth and global support.
- Bank Nifty:
- Look for sell-on-rise setups via calls (or put spreads) if price retests 60,800–61,000 but fails to sustain above.
- Fresh long strategies may be considered only above 61,400–61,500 with confirmation from sector leaders.
- Sensex:
- Index futures or options strategies should remain defensive, with any long attempts strictly limited to intraday bounces off clearly observed supports and with tight stops, as the index remains below its 200‑DMA.
All such strategies must respect personal risk tolerance and should be executed only after consulting a registered financial advisor.
Final Verdict for 2nd March 2026
Putting together the Technical Analysis, derivative data and global backdrop, the Final Verdict for 2nd March 2026 is:
- Bias: Bearish to sideways; sell-on-rise remains the dominant theme across Nifty, Bank Nifty and Sensex while Nifty trades below 25,350–25,500 and Sensex remains under key moving averages.
- Nifty Predictions: Likely to oscillate between 25,100 and 25,350 with a downside skew; a breakdown below 25,100 opens 25,000–24,900, whereas sustained trade above 25,350–25,500 is needed for any meaningful trend reversal.
- Bank Nifty Predictions: Relative weekly resilience may limit damage initially, but below 60,300 the index risks testing 60,000 and lower; only a close above 60,800–61,000 would ease immediate pressure.
- Sensex Predictions: Structure stays weakest; bounces toward 81,800–82,000 are likely to see supply, with 81,000 as the key near-term line in the sand for bulls.
Until these resistance zones are convincingly reclaimed, tomorrow’s market is better approached with caution and tactical, short-term strategies rather than positional bullish bets.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade in the Indian Stock Market.
All views above are based on publicly available price action, Technical Analysis and derivative data and are not SEBI‑registered investment advice. Trading and investing in equities and derivatives involve significant risk of loss, and past performance or patterns do not guarantee future returns.