Technical Analysis for 23 Sept 2025

Technical Analysis for 23 Sept 2025:

Nifty, Bank Nifty & Sensex Prediction

By Option Matrix India | Your Trusted Technical Analysis Partner

Published: 22nd September 2025

The Indian stock market witnessed significant volatility on September 22, 2025, with benchmark indices declining for the second consecutive session amid profit-booking and H-1B visa policy changes impacting IT stocks. Nifty 50 closed at 25,202.35, down 124.70 points, while Bank Nifty settled at 55,284.75, showing resilience despite broader market weakness. Our comprehensive analysis suggests cautious optimism for September 23, 2025, with key technical levels providing crucial support and resistance zones.

Professional stock market technical analysis setup for Indian markets

Current Market Situation: September 22, 2025 Recap

Monday's trading session marked a decisive shift in market sentiment as indices retreated from recent highs. The Sensex declined 466.26 points to 82,159.97, while mid-cap and small-cap indices followed suit with declines of 0.7% each. FII selling pressure continued with outflows of ₹2,910 crores, though DII buying of ₹2,605 crores provided some cushion.

Key Market Drivers for September 22, 2025:

• H-1B Visa Fee Hike: The US administration's decision to increase H-1B visa fees to $100,000 severely impacted IT stocks.
• Profit Booking: After a strong 1,000-point rally, markets witnessed natural consolidation.
• Global Cues: Mixed international signals added to market uncertainty.
• GST Benefits: New GST reforms implementation provided some sectoral support.

Technical Analysis: Nifty Predictions for September 23, 2025

Nifty 50 Technical Analysis Chart - September 22, 2025 with Key Support and Resistance Levels

Current Technical Setup

Nifty 50 has formed a bearish candle with long lower shadow on daily charts, indicating buying support at lower levels despite selling pressure. The index touched an intraday low of 25,151 before recovering, suggesting strong demand near the 25,150 breakout level.

Key Technical Levels for September 23, 2025

Critical Support Levels:

• 25,150-25,100: Immediate support zone; crucial for trend continuation.
• 25,000: Major psychological support with strong put writing.
• 24,900-24,850: Next support zone coinciding with 20-day and 50-day EMA confluence.

Resistance Levels:

• 25,360-25,400: Immediate resistance; must be surpassed for bullish momentum.
• 25,450-25,500: Key resistance zone where falling trendline intersects.
• 25,600-25,650: Extended targets if breakout occurs.

Technical Indicators Analysis

• RSI: Currently at 58.19, showing weakening momentum but staying above 50.
• MACD: Maintains bullish crossover with histogram above zero line.
• Moving Averages: Index trading above all key EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200-day).
• Volume: Above-average trading volumes suggest active participation

Bank Nifty Predictions for September 23, 2025

Bank Nifty Technical Analysis Chart - September 22, 2025 with Banking Sector Key Levels

Banking Sector Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining its position in an ascending channel pattern despite broader market weakness. The index has been outperforming benchmark indices with 12 consecutive sessions of gains before the recent consolidation.

Bank Nifty Key Levels for September 23

Support Zones:

• 55,000-54,950: Immediate support with strong institutional buying.
• 54,800-54,750: Critical support; confluence of 20-day EMA and previous swing low.
• 54,400-54,500: Extended support if selling intensifies.

Resistance Levels:

• 56,000-56,160: Major resistance at 61.8% retracement level.
• 56,400-56,500: Next target zone if breakout occurs.
• 57,000: Extended target for sustained bullish move.

Banking Sector Catalysts

• PSU Bank Strength: PSU Banking index gained 1.28% led by Canara Bank and PNB.
• Credit Growth: Sustained lending growth supporting sector fundamentals.
• GST Benefits: Government banks expected to benefit from GST rate cuts.

Sensex Predictions and Analysis

BSE Sensex mirrored Nifty's performance, declining 466.26 points to close at 82,159.97. The index formed a similar bearish candle but maintained its position above key moving averages, suggesting underlying strength.

Sensex Technical Levels

Support: 82,000-81,800 (immediate), 81,500-81,200 (extended)

Resistance: 82,800-83,000 (immediate), 83,200-83,500 (key resistance)

The index continues to trade above its 200-day moving average, indicating the long-term uptrend remains intact despite short-term volatility.

Market Analysis for Tomorrow: September 23, 2025

Expected Market Scenario

Based on GIFT Nifty trading at 25,286 (flat performance), markets are expected to open with mild positive bias but face immediate resistance challenges.

Trading Strategy for September 23

For Nifty 50:

• Buy Above: 25,200 with targets of 25,350, 25,400, 25,500
• Sell Below: 25,100 with targets of 25,000, 24,900, 24,850
• Stop Loss: Maintain strict risk management at 25,050 for longs

For Bank Nifty:

• Buy Above: 55,600 with targets of 55,800, 56,000, 56,200
• Sell Below: 55,000 with targets of 54,800, 54,600, 54,400
• Key Level: 55,600 acts as immediate resistance for bullish continuation

Option Chain Analysis and Market Sentiment

Nifty Options Data

• Maximum Call OI: 25,500 strike (1.58 crore contracts) acting as key resistance.
• Maximum Put OI: 25,200 strike with strong writing, indicating support.
• PCR Ratio: Currently at 0.82, suggesting bullish bias but weakening.

Derivatives Positioning

FII and DII Activity:

• FII: Net sellers with ₹2,910 crore outflow.
• DII: Net buyers with ₹2,605 crore inflow, supporting market stability.
• Institutional Flow: DII buying expected to continue supporting markets.

Sectoral Analysis and Stock Recommendations

Outperforming Sectors

• Energy: Led by Adani Power (+20%), Adani Total Gas (+19%).
• PSU Banks: Strong performance with UCO Bank, Canara Bank leading.
• Defence: Continued strength with BEL receiving ₹2,400 crore order.

Underperforming Sectors

• IT: Massive selling due to H-1B visa fee hike affecting TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra.
• Private Banking: Profit booking in ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank.
• FMCG: Consolidation in Nestle, HUL amid mixed demand signals.

Global Market Influence and Cues

International Factors

• US Markets: Record highs in Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq provide positive backdrop.
• Fed Policy: 25 bps rate cut supporting emerging market flows.
• Dollar Index: Stable USD/INR around 88.30 levels.
• Crude Oil: Rising crude prices supporting energy sector stocks.

Domestic Policy Impact

• GST Reforms: New GST structure effective from September 22 supporting consumption.
• Festival Season: Navratri beginning expected to boost demand.
• Trade Negotiations: Commerce Minister's US visit for bilateral trade talks.

Risk Factors and Cautions

Key Risks for September 23

1. Continued FII Selling: Sustained foreign outflows could pressure markets.
2. IT Sector Weakness: H-1B visa impact may continue affecting sentiment.
3. Global Volatility: Any negative international cues could trigger selling.
4. Profit Booking: Markets at elevated levels vulnerable to consolidation.

Risk Management Strategy

• Maintain strict stop losses at key support levels
• Avoid aggressive positions until clear trend emerges
• Focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals
• Book profits on strength and buy on dips selectively.

Market Predictions Summary for September 23, 2025

Overall Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic with range-bound trading expected

Nifty Predictions:

• Range: 25,000 - 25,400
• Bias: Sideways to slightly positive if 25,200 holds
• Breakout Level: Above 25,400 for sustained rally

Bank Nifty Predictions:

• Range: 55,000 - 56,000
• Bias: Positive if above 55,600
• Target: 56,200-56,500 on breakout

Sensex Predictions:

• Range: 82,000 - 83,000
• Bias: Following Nifty's lead
• Key Level: 82,500 support crucial

Common candlestick patterns with buy and sell signals used in technical stock market analysis indian-share-tips

Conclusion: Strategic Approach for Indian Stock Market

The Indian stock market stands at a critical juncture with technical indicators suggesting a pause in the uptrend rather than a reversal. September 23, 2025 will be crucial in determining whether markets can resume their upward trajectory or require further consolidation.

Key Takeaways:

• Market structure remains bullish above key support levels
• H-1B visa impact on IT sector may be temporary
• GST benefits and festival season provide medium-term support
• Risk management crucial in current volatile environment

Traders and investors should maintain a disciplined approach, focusing on quality stocks with strong technical setups while avoiding overleveraged positions until market direction becomes clearer. The overall trend remains positive for those with a medium to long-term perspective, with every dip presenting potential buying opportunities for quality names.

Stay tuned to Option Matrix India for continued market analysis and real-time updates as we navigate these dynamic market conditions in the final quarter of 2025.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results.