Technical Analysis for 29 July 2025
The Indian stock market, represented by indices such as Nifty50 and Bank Nifty, relies heavily on technical analysis to inform traders. This method examines past price trends and patterns to forecast future movements. On July 29, 2025, we will analyze the Nifty50 and Bank Nifty, highlighting key price levels and strategies. Following a bearish close on July 28 and mixed global signals, accurate market analysis is essential for identifying opportunities and risks. Our previous forecasts have successfully predicted recent trends, and we aim to deliver valuable insights for the upcoming trading session.
Today’s Price Movement
On July 28, 2025, the Indian stock market continued its decline, with the Nifty50 index opening at 24,782.45, down from 24,837.00. Despite reaching a high of 24,886.30, it fell to a low of 24,648.15, closing at 24,679.35, a drop of 0.63%. This marks the third consecutive day of losses, totaling 382.75 points. The Bank Nifty also followed suit, opening at 56,215.10 and closing at 56,065.40, down 0.82%. Trading volume for Nifty50 decreased to 194.05 million shares, suggesting a potential pause in the downtrend. The daily candle reflected bearish sentiment, indicating that sellers remained in control despite an initial upward attempt.
Key Observations of Market Closing
Several factors influenced the market’s performance on July 28, 2025:
- Global Cues: Crude oil prices stabilized at $65.79 per barrel, slightly up from $65.16, which may ease India's import costs. The Indian rupee fell to 86.652 against the US dollar from 86.475, impacting import-heavy sectors. European markets were mostly positive, with the EU50 index gaining 2.02% over the past month. Dow Jones futures rose 0.2% or 92 points, reflecting optimism from a US-EU trade deal.
- Market Trend: Nifty50 and Bank Nifty saw declines of 1.08% and 1.75% over the past week, with a bearish candle on July 28 indicating continued downtrend, though lower volumes may suggest a potential reversal.
- Sectoral Impact: The banking sector's underperformance, highlighted by Bank Nifty's drop, points to challenges in financial stocks, possibly due to interest rate concerns. The broader market's bearishness was driven by losses in energy, metal, and auto sectors.
- Volatility: The India VIX increased by 7% to 12.06, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
These observations suggest a cautious market environment, with global cues providing mixed signals and domestic indices showing signs of potential stabilization due to lower trading volumes.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels are critical in technical analysis, representing price points where buying or selling interest historically emerges, influencing future price movements.
Nifty50
Level Type | Price (INR) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
Support | 24,645 | Close to July 28 low (24,648.15), a key level to watch for potential buying interest. |
Support | 24,550 | Next support if 24,645 is breached, based on expert projections. |
Support | 24,470 | Further downside target, indicating stronger selling pressure. |
Support | 24,366 | Deep support level, potentially signaling a significant correction. |
Resistance | 24,735 | Immediate resistance, part of the no-trading zone upper boundary. |
Resistance | 24,800 | First target if 24,735 is broken, indicating bullish momentum. |
Resistance | 24,915 | Second target, aligning with recent highs. |
Resistance | 25,000 | Psychological level and third target for a strong breakout. |
Bank Nifty
Level Type | Price (INR) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
Support | 56,000 | Approximate level near July 28 low (56,004.40), critical for holding the index. |
Support | 55,500 | Potential support if 56,000 fails, based on recent trends. |
Resistance | 56,576.75 | July 28 high, immediate resistance to watch. |
Resistance | 57,000 | Round number and near July 25 high (57,170.70). |
Resistance | 57,316.60 | July 24 high, a significant barrier for bullish moves. |
These levels are derived from recent price action and expert analysis, providing traders with clear markers for potential entry and exit points. The no-trading zone for Nifty50 between 24,645 and 24,735, as suggested by our expert, indicates a range where price action may consolidate before a decisive move.
Nifty Predictions
Our expert analysis, which has been accurate in predicting recent market movements, suggests a strategic approach for Nifty50 on July 29, 2025:
- No-Trading Zone (24,645–24,735): This range is expected to act as a consolidation zone. Traders should avoid initiating trades within this band to minimize risk, as price action may lack clear direction.
- Bullish Scenario: If a 15-minute candle closes above 24,735, it signals potential bullish momentum. Targets include:
- First Target: 24,800, aligning with recent resistance levels.
- Second Target: 24,915, approaching the July 25 high.
- Third Target: 25,000, a psychological level that could attract significant buying interest.
- Bearish Scenario: If a 15-minute candle closes below 24,645, it indicates continued selling pressure. Downside targets are:
- First Target: 24,550, a key support level.
- Second Target: 24,470, suggesting deeper correction.
- Third Target: 24,366, a critical level for long-term support.
- Intraday Strategy: If the index crosses 24,735 but closes below it on a 15-minute candle, short-side targets are 24,645 and 24,580. Conversely, if it crosses 24,645 but closes above, upside targets are 24,730 and 24,780.
- Trading Rule: Avoid bullish trades during bearish candles and bearish trades during bullish candles to align with the prevailing trend.
Traders should monitor the first 15-minute candle of the trading session to gauge intraday momentum and use stop-losses to manage risk effectively.
Bank Nifty Predictions
Bank Nifty, reflecting the banking sector’s performance, is likely to follow a similar trajectory to Nifty50 due to its significant weight in the broader market. While specific target levels were not provided, we can infer the following based on recent price action:
- Support Zone: The 56,000 level is critical, close to the July 28 low of 56,004.40. A break below could lead to 55,500, a level supported by historical lows.
- Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is at 56,576.75 (July 28 high), followed by 57,000 and 57,316.60 (July 24 high).
- Trading Strategy: Similar to Nifty50, traders should watch for a breakout above 56,576.75 for bullish opportunities or a breakdown below 56,000 for bearish trades. The banking sector’s performance is closely tied to interest rate expectations and economic data, so any news on these fronts could influence Bank Nifty’s movement.
Given the correlation between Nifty50 and Bank Nifty, a decisive move in Nifty50 is likely to trigger a similar response in Bank Nifty. Traders should align their strategies with the broader market trend and monitor key levels closely.
Tomorrow’s Market Prediction
For July 29, 2025, the Indian stock market is expected to open flat or slightly higher, influenced by positive global cues such as bullish Dow futures and stable European markets. However, the recent three-day downtrend and bearish candle on July 28 suggest that selling pressure may persist unless key support levels hold. The decreasing trading volume (194.05M for Nifty50 and 116.82M for Bank Nifty) indicates that the current downtrend may be losing steam, potentially leading to consolidation or a reversal if buying interest emerges.
- Nifty50 Outlook: The market is likely to trade within the 24,645–24,735 range initially. A breakout above 24,735 could signal a bullish reversal, targeting 24,800 and beyond, while a breakdown below 24,645 may lead to further declines toward 24,550. Traders should watch the opening price and the first 15-minute candle for directional cues.
- Bank Nifty Outlook: Bank Nifty may test the 56,000 support level. A hold above this level could lead to a recovery toward 56,576.75, while a break below may push it toward 55,500. The banking sector’s performance will be crucial, given its weight in the index.
- Key Factors: Monitor global market developments, particularly US market openings and any news on trade deals or economic data. Domestic factors, such as corporate earnings or RBI policy updates, could also influence sentiment.
Traders should remain cautious, using the identified support and resistance levels to guide their decisions and employing strict risk management practices.
Final Verdict
The Indian stock market is currently in a short-term downtrend, as evidenced by the bearish close on July 28, 2025, for both Nifty50 and Bank Nifty. However, signs of decreasing volume suggest that the selling pressure may be waning, potentially setting the stage for a consolidation phase or a reversal if key support levels hold. Our previous analysis accurately predicted the recent bearish trend, reinforcing the reliability of our technical insights. For July 29, traders should focus on the 24,645–24,735 range for Nifty50 and the 56,000–56,576.75 range for Bank Nifty, preparing for both bullish and bearish scenarios based on breakout or breakdown signals. By adhering to disciplined trading strategies and monitoring global and domestic cues, traders can navigate the market effectively.
Risk-Management Playbook – How to Trade 29 July Safely
(Use this as a ready-reckoner before you punch in a single order.)
Position-Sizing Matrix
| Account Equity (₹) | Max Risk per Trade | Max Open Risk (All Trades) | Position Size Formula* |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 1 Lakh | 1 % | 3 % | (Risk ÷ Stop-loss points) × Lot Size |
| 1 – 5 Lakh | 1 – 1.5 % | 4 % | Same as above |
| > 5 Lakh | 1.5 – 2 % | 5 % | Same as above |
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Disclaimer
Investing in the stock market involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.